Page 35 - UKRRptJul20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisors
5.1​ External sector overview
The trade balance surplus reached $373mn in May (vs. a $930mn surplus in April)​ with the goods trade balance switching to an insignificant deficit of $122mn (vs. a 273mn surplus in April).
The primary income account reached a $495mn surplus (vs. a 557mn surplus in April), while the secondary income account surplus amounted to $266mn (vs. a 244mn surplus in April). In 5M20, the current account surplus amounted to $5.6bn (vs. a $1.1bn deficit in 5M19).
Good imports plunged 35.5% y/y to $3.3bn in May, accelerating from a 29.8% y/y decline in April. In particular, the decline in imports of mineral products accelerated to 53.7% y/y (from a 39.7% y/y decline in April). Imports of chemicals dropped 33.3% y/y (vs. a 17.9% y/y decline in April). In 5M20, goods imports dropped 16.5% y/y.
The decline in goods exports accelerated 24.7% y/y to $3.1bn in May from a drop of 3.8% y/y in April. In particular, the decline of metals exports deepened to 32.1% y/y (vs. 18.1% y/y in April). Food exports switched to a 13.4% y/y fall from 6.6% y/y growth in April. Exports of mineral products plummeted 35.2% y/y (vs. 12.1% y/y growth in April). In 5M20, goods exports declined 6.1% y/y.
The financial account deficit swelled to $1.7bn in May from $1.2bn in April. The net outflow from the state budget of $1.3bn was the result of repayments in Eurobonds ($1bn) and the net sale of local bonds by non-residents ($0.3bn). In addition, the net outflow on foreign direct investment amounted to $323mn (vs. an inflow of $360mn in April).
In May, Ukraine’s balance of payments switched to a $353mn deficit from a $716bn surplus in April. In 5M20, the surplus of the balance of payments amounted to $224mn (vs. a $466mn deficit in 5M19).
35​ UKRAINE Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com