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data from bank card use, ‘non-cash turnover’ in grocery stores in May was 23% above February. Electronics and household appliances was down 43% in April, then returned to normal in May. Similarly, gas station spending returned to normal in May. The bank concludes: “In May 2020, the trade turnover in the main retail sectors reached the pre-crisis level.”
9.1.6​ Agriculture sector news
The soaking rains of May are prompting the Ukrainian Grain Association to boost its grain, legume and oil seeds harvest forecast by 4%, to 78mn tons​, near last year’s record level. With the bigger harvest, exports will increase to 58.5mn tons. Last year’s exports were 23% higher than the 2018/2019 marketing year. “Improved soil moisture almost all over the country” is easing drought fears and boosting yields, says Mykola Gorbachev, president of the association of producers, processors and exporters.
Refined sunflower oil production is up 23% through May, compared to the first five months of last year​, reports Ukroliyaprom, the vegetable oil industry group, citing the State Statistical Service. During the same time, the share of oils and fats in Ukraine’s overall food exports rose to 34%. Through May, Ukraine exported $2.7bn of oils and fats, largely to Asia and the EU. Sunoil prices remained firm through the coronavirus crisis, hitting $775/ton last week. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter. With Asian demand strong, Ukraine next year may produce 3% more sunoil y/y, for a total of 6.9mn tons, forecasts APK-Inform agriculture consultancy. The sunflower seed harvest starts in two weeks.
To attract foreign pig farmers, Ukraine’s Meat Industry Association has declared an ambitious goal of more than tripling the nation’s pig population to 20mn by 2025​. Mykola Babenko, executive director of the Association, notes that that pork prices rose by 48% last year in the EU, while “hundreds” of pig farms in the Netherlands are receiving state aid to shut down due to concerns about air and water pollution. In the six years since African swine fever appeared in Ukraine, more than 2,000 small pig farms have closed. Only major investors can afford the sanitary measures needed to protect herds from the virus.
Due to good weather, the government’s forecast of a 68-million ton grain harvest may be revised upwards​, says Economy Minister Igor Petrashko. Other official forecasts are: Oilseeds – sunflower, soybean and canola – 20mn tons; Potatoes – 20mn tons; Sugar beets – 9mn tons; and Vegetables – 9mn tons. Most Ukrainian spring crops are in good or satisfactory condition thanks to return of warm weather in most of the country, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy reporte, citing weather forecasters. Drought only affected parts of southern Ukraine, a region where harvesting of winter barley started at the start of June. Similarly, UkrAgroConsult reports that June’s hot weather mixed with rains favourably affected the quality and quantity of crops ripening in the fields – barley, wheat, corn and sunflowers.
In the grain marketing year that ends June 24, Ukraine will have earned $9.6bn in grain sales​, second only to the US, Nikolai Gorbachev, head of the Ukrainian Grain Association, told reporters yesterday. “We already left behind such large countries as Russia, Argentina, Brazil,” he said. Comparable numbers are: Argentina - $9.3bn; and Russia - $7.9bn.
68​ UKRAINE Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com