Page 69 - UKRRptJul20

Low agricultural productivity sets the stage for growth in the 2020s.
Ukraine’s average wheat yield is four tons per hectare – half of France’s yield of eight tons per hectare. Ukraine’s average yield is seven tons per hectare, well below the 12 tons per hectare recorded in the US state of Iowa. Ukraine’s aging population means that consumption will not rise. “The United States grows 350mn tons of corn and exports more than 50mn tons,” said Gorbachov. “Ukraine, this year, produced 35mn tons of corn and exported 30mn tons.”
The May rains came too late and did not fall far south enough to save the winter wheat harvest in Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv, Tetiana Adamenko​, head of farm weather for the state Hydrometereological centre, tells UNIAN. Coupled with a shift to planting to corn, this may depress this year’s wheat harvest by 18%, to 23.2mn tons. For the upcoming marketing year, wheat exports could be down by one quarter, to 14.9mn, traders tell Reuters.
Due to higher yields, Ukraine is to boost its soybean harvest by 14% this year,​ predicts the Ukrainian Grain Association. With yields up by 6%, to 2.5 tons per hectare, the harvest of soy, a legume, is expected to hit 4.2mn tons, about 8th place worldwide. Yesterday, China’s government ordered large state-run agricultural companies to “pause” soybean purchases from the US, Bloomberg reports.
With farmers putting more land into corn, this year’s corn crop should be 6% above last year’s record of 35.2mn​, the Association predicts. Prices of corn and wheat, Ukraine’s two largest export crops, have held up during the global coronavirus epidemic, reports Alfa-Bank Ukraine. Since the start of the year, corn prices are up 2% and wheat prices are up 3%. Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of wheat. The corn harvest is to hit 37mn tons, with 84% or 31mn tons, going out the Black Sea ports to feed the world. Similarly, Ukraine should have a strong wheat harvest – 27mn tons, compared to 28mn tons last year. This year, 18mn tons, or two thirds, will go out the door as exports.This year, Ukraine will have a record corn harvest and its second largest wheat harvest in history, predicts the Grain Association. Closing in on the symbolic goal of a 100-million-ton harvest, this year’s harvest is to hit 97mn tons. Of this, 61% -- or 59mn tons – will be exported to world markets.
69​ UKRAINE Country Report​ July 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com