Page 16 - FSUOGM Week 36 2022

FSUOGM NEWS IN BRIEF FSUOGM

EU demand for Azerbaijan repairs. The pipeline was flowing about 1mn pipeline company BOTAS last December
Russia’s Gazprom and Turkish state
barrels per day (bpd), below its 1.5mn bpd
gas will hit 12 bcm per year capacity, Reuters said. struck a four-year agreement under which
the former will supply the latter with
"There are no constraints right now
in 2022-2023, says Fitch on loading," because of the repairs to the 5.75bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas via the
TurkStream pipeline. Turkey buys up to
port's loading buoys and maintenance
The international rating agency Fitch on the pipeline, Wirth was reported as half the natural gas it requires from Russia,
Ratings has published a forecast for the saying, adding that rail transit could be an while also taking supplies from Iran and
demand of the countries of the European alternative to a loss of the loading port or Azerbaijan, and importing liquefied natural
Union for gas and the volume of supplies in pipeline. gas (LNG) from suppliers including the US.
the face of a reduction in gas supplies from Tengiz producers "have shipped a lot of Separately, on September 7, Erdogan
Russia. oil via rail out of that area" over the years, lashed out at Western nations for provoking
The annual demand for natural gas in Wirth was also cited as saying, adding: "But Russia, while hailing Ankara’s policy of
the EU countries for 2022 is projected at the reality is in the near term, the primary “balance” towards the two sides engaged in
357 bcm against 397 bcm in 2021. By 2023, and the large-scale option remains this Russia’s war in Ukraine.
demand is expected to decrease to 339 bcm. pipeline." While declining to sanction Moscow,
At the same time, gas imports to the EU in Turkey at the same time has supplied
2022 are expected to reach 322 bcm, and in Ukraine with weapons and combat drones.
2023 313bcm. Turkey set to pay in rubles Erdogan told reporters during a visit
According to Fitch Ratings, the demand to Belgrade that he understood Putin’s
of EU countries for Azerbaijani gas in 2022 for quarter of gas piped decision to cut off Nord Stream pipeline gas
and 2023 will amount to 12 bcm (in 2021, supplies to Germany.
Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe was 8 from Russia “I can say very clearly that I do not
bcm). find the attitude of the West, no need to
"Our proven reserves are 2.6 trillion Moscow and Ankara have agreed that mention names, to be correct, because it is
cubic meters. Potentially, we can supply Turkey will pay for 25% of the natural gas a policy based on provocations,” Erdogan
more than 20 bcm to Europe. But you need it purchases from Russia in rubles, Russian said at a news conference with his Serbian
to understand that Europe is not the only energy giant Gazprom said in a statement counterpart Aleksandar Vucic.
market for us," President Ilham Aliyev quoted by news agencies on September 6. “As long as you try to wage such a war of
earlier said in an interview with the Italian The remainder of the gas would be paid provocations, you will not be able to get the
newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on 2 September. for in euros and dollars, BloombergHT said needed result.”
Azerbaijan began supplying gas to in its report on the deal. The share of the gas Erdogan is expected to meet Putin at a
Europe – Italy, Greece and Bulgaria – bill paid in rubles would be expanded over regional summit in Uzbekistan next week.
through the TAP gas pipeline on December time, it added, citing unidentified sources. Chinese President Xi Jinping will also
31, 2020. Azerbaijan and the EU reached Russia wants to de-dollarise trade where attend.
an agreement in July 2022 to double gas possible to reduce economic reliance on the
supplies to the EU to 20 bcm by 2027. USD as a reserve currency, while Turkey
is acutely short of hard currency after S&P cuts Kazakhstan
spending tens of billions of its FX reserves
Chevron reportedly working in a failed attempt at protecting the Turkish outlook to negative amid
lira from severe depreciation.
with Kazakhstan on oil who has declined to join Western nations in fears of Russian hand on oil
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
export alternatives to imposing sanctions on Moscow in response export tap
to the Russian invasion of Ukraine—arguing
Russia’s Novorossijsk Turkey has unique geostrategic imperatives S&P Global Ratings has lowered its outlook
and economic vulnerabilities given its
on Kazakhstan to negative, from stable, on
Chevron Corp is working with Kazakhstan economic links to Black Sea maritime concern about how the country relies on
to assure that oil flows from the landlocked neighbours Russia and Ukraine, and also export infrastructure laid across Russia to
country's fields can be sustained in the needs to keep up good relations with both ship most of its crude.
event of halts to Black Sea loadings at Moscow and Kyiv so that it might serve as Since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine six
Russia’s Novorossijsk port, company CEO a trusted intermediary available to conduct months ago, Kazakhstan—which has riled
Michael Wirth told an energy conference on peace talks—first announced plans for Nato some influential voices in Russia by failing
September 7, as reported by Reuters. member Turkey to pay for Russian gas in to offer any support for Moscow’s choice
Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to Russia’s rubles after meeting Russian counterpart to fight a war in Ukraine—has several
ability to control the CPC pipeline, via Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia at the start times experienced restrictions beyond its
which around 80% of shipped Kazakh crude of last month. Critics accuse Erdogan of control on its oil exports from Novorossijsk
is exported, in the past week led S&P Global shrewdly sitting on the fence in the Ukraine on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which serves
Ratings to cut its outlook on the Central conflict, achieving an unprincipled situation as the main oil shipment artery for the
Asian country from stable to negative. that is hugely to Turkey’s benefit. Putin, they Kazakhs. Kazakh oil flows to the port in a
Oil from Kazakhstan's major Tengiz add, is able to exploit the situation to drive pipeline operated by the Caspian Pipeline
Field flows across Russia via the CPC a wedge into the Western defence bloc and Consortium (CPC). The S&P downgrade
pipeline to Novorossijsk, where two of undermine European and US attempts to was triggered by an assessment that the
three loading buoys have been undergoing bring Russia to heel. CPC pipeline route remains vulnerable to

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