Page 17 - UKRRptSept20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s economy shrank by 11% y/y during the second quarter, ​midway between the EU’s drop of 12.1% and the US drop of 9.5%. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that during the current quarter, the economy is performing 7.4% below last summer. The central bank has forecast that the fourth quarter drop will be 3.8%, making for a 6% drop for all of 2020. In 2021 and 2022, the bank predicts Ukraine’s economy will grow at an annual rate of 4%.
The forecast for nominal GDP has been reduced from UAH3.985 trillion to UAH3.975 trillion, although the ministry still expects GDP to fall by 4.8%.
Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 6.5% y/y in 1H20, deepening from estimated 5.9% y/y decline in 5M20​, according to an estimate published on August 6 in the report of the Ministry of Economic Development. In 2Q20, GDP collapsed 11.0% y/y (down from 1.3% y/y drop in 1Q20), the ministry estimates. The estimate is based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account the manufacturing results during the period.
"Our forecast of the 2Q20 GDP drop is close to the latest government estimate," Evgeniya Akhtyrko, an analyst at the Kyiv-based Concorde Capital brokerage, said in a research note. "We expect the economic decline to slow down in 2H20, with ongoing adverse effects from the global markets and the unfavourable investment environment in the country." "Our forecast is for Ukraine’s real GDP to drop 5.8% y/y in 2020 (vs. 3.2% y/y growth in 2019)," he added.
According to the Central Bank, Farming is expected to be the largest sector of the economy that has been least affected by quarantine
17​ UKRAINE Country Report​ September 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com