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restrictions. ​Food accounts for almost half of Ukraine’s exports. In March and April, farmers largely ignored orders from Kyiv to stop buying and selling seeds and fertilizer. But, lack of rain in May is denting the current harvest. Other sectors that are doing well in the Covid19 economy are IT and domestic tourism.
By doubling spending on road construction, the government averted a steep drop in the construction sector​ during the first half of this year, according to Oleksiy Blinov, Economist for Alfa-Bank Ukraine. Big spending on roads pulled up infrastructure output by 12%. By contrast, housing construction was down 19%. Overall construction was down 5.5% during the first half, compared to January-June 2019.
3.2 ​Macro outlook
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers preliminary approved on July 29 its forecast for macroeconomic and social development for 2021-2023, ​with projected GDP growth of 4.6% y/y and inflation of 7.3% YTD in 2021.
GDP growth will slow to 4.3% y/y growth in 2022​, before accelerating to 4.7% y/y in 2023, according to the forecast. Consumer inflation will slow to 6.2% YTD in 2022 and 5.3% YTD in 2023.
The government expects import growth to outpace rising exports​. In particular, imports of goods and services will increase 10.6% y/y in 2021, 10.0% y/y in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023. Meanwhile, exports are expected to advance 2.9% y/y in 2021, 6.4% y/y in 2022 and 8.2% y/y in 2023.
18​ UKRAINE Country Report​ September 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com