Page 5 - AfrElec Week 37

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s and
drop by a third by 2050. Hydrogen and bioenergy are pitched as
Gas has two main roles in the energy tran- another way of decarbonising energy. Hydrogen
sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in will increase its share to 16% under the net zero
fast-growing, developing economies where and 7% under the rapid case, whereas bioenergy
renewables cannot be deployed fast enough; will grow to 10% of primary energy in the net
second, it can be combined with carbon, capture zero case and 7% in the rapid one.
and storage (CCS) to produce near zero-carbon
energy. The rapid and net-zero scenarios see gas Commitments
combined with CCS accounting between 8 and With new CEO Bernard Looney at the helm,
10% of primary energy in three decades’ time. BP has embraced the energy transition, more so
than any of the world’s other leading oil and gas
Clean tech companies. This was demonstrated in BP’s net-
Unsurprisingly, BP sees renewables on the fast- zero strategy unveiled last month.
est-growing trajectory, led by rising wind and The strategy called for a 40% reduction in the
solar capacity. The share of renewables in final company’s oil and gas production over the next
energy consumption is seen expanding from a decade, and a similar scaling back of its refining
little over 20% in 2018 to 34% in the business-as- operations. It also aims to bolster annual invest-
usual case, 45% in the rapid case and over 50% ments in clean energy tenfold by 2030.
in the net zero case. “The world is on an unsustainable path: the
Growth will be driven by falling costs, which scenarios show that achieving a rapid and sus-
are expected to be 30% and 65% lower for wind tained fall in carbon emissions is likely to require
and solar respectively by 2050 under the rapid a series of policy measures, led by a significant
scenario, and by 35% and 70% respectively in increase in carbon prices,” BP concluded. “These
the net-zero scenario. policies may need to be further reinforced by
Electrification will also increase in all three shifts in societal behaviours and preferences.”
scenarios, with the share of electricity in the Delaying either policies or societal shifts will
final energy mix rising from 20% in 2018 to only make the challenge greater and add to the
34% for business-as-usual, 45% for rapid and economic cost and disruption, the company
over 50% for net zero. warned. ™

Week 37 17•September•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5