Page 17 - UKRRptApr19

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.50%
3.40%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
7.80%
6.10%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
18.20%
12.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.40%
3.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2 983
3516
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2 638
3086
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
13.70%
8.90%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.40%
11.90%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.50%
8.80%
Source: SP Advisors
Ukraine's GDP grew by 3.3% year-on-year in 2018 following a 2.5% y/y growth in 2017 and a 2.4% y/y growth in 2016, the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat reported on March 21. Ukrstat has also improved the estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 3/4% y/y to 3.5% y/y. According to official data, the nation's GDP grew by 2.8% y/y (0.4% q/q) in the third quarter of 2018. In March, the nation's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said that the Ukrainian government forecasts the economic growth by over 3% y/y in 2019. "This year we are working so that in 2019 the economy would grow steadily more than 3%. We will continue to do major repairs to the country, invest resources in roads, infrastructure, and build social infrastructure facilities," Groysman said. In December 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downwards its GDP forecast for 2018 from 3.5 y/y to 3.3% y/y. On top of that, the Fund revised downwards its GDP growth forecast for 2020 from 3.4% y/y to 3% y/y. The growth forecast for 2019 remained unchanged at 2.7%.
17 UKRAINE Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com