Page 4 - AfrElec Week 41 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Governments still woefully short

of IEA’s net-zero requirements

INDIA THE International Energy Agency (IEA) has will actually still be rising when they hit 2.6 °C
warned that countries need to go far beyond above pre-industrial levels in 2100.
existing emissions reduction pledges if they are Meanwhile, the Announced Pledges Sce-
to be on course to achieve net zero emissions by nario (APS) includes net zero emissions pledges
2050, and that the “stubborn incumbency” of already announced by governments so far, and if
fossil fuels needs to be challenged and overcome. they are implemented in time and in full.
The IEA said in its 2021 World Energy Out- This means that demand for fossil fuels peaks
look that the world needs to find 12bn tonnes of by 2025, and global CO2 emissions fall by 40%
new CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 if there by 2050. All sectors see a decline, with the elec-
is to be any chance of reaching net zero by 2050. tricity sector delivering by far the largest share
The stark warning comes as emissions, cli- of energy supply. However, global average tem-
mate disasters and energy market volatility are perature rise by 2010 will still be around 2.1°C.
all increasing as the world recovers from the Put simply, only the NZE has any chance of
COVID-19 pandemic. This means that clean meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5°C, and govern-
energy progress is still far too slow to put global ments needs to make more and better climate
emissions into sustained decline towards net pledges if the target is to be met. Existing prom-
zero. ises are not enough.
The figures for 2021 are expected to be not “Today’s climate pledges would result in only
good, the report warned, with coal consump- 20% of the emissions reductions by 2030 that are
tion growing strongly in 2021, pushing CO2 necessary to put the world on a path towards net
emissions towards their second largest annual zero by 2050,” Birol said.
increase in history. “Reaching that path requires investment in
The new report comes just ahead of the clean energy projects and infrastructure to more
COP26 conference in Glasgow. than triple over the next decade. Some 70% of
“The world’s hugely encouraging clean that additional spending needs to happen in
energy momentum is running up against the emerging and developing economies, where
stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels in our financing is scarce and capital remains up to
energy systems,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Exec- seven times more expensive than in advanced
utive Director. economies.”
“Governments need to resolve this at COP26
by giving a clear and unmistakable signal that Roadmap
they are committed to rapidly scaling up the The report builds on the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050
clean and resilient technologies of the future. roadmap, published in May, where it described
The social and economic benefits of accelerating reaching net zero by 2050 as “narrow but still
clean energy transitions are huge, and the costs achievable.”
of inaction are immense,” he warned. Back then, the IEA said that there could be no
new upstream projects
Scenarios The roadmap’s Net-Zero Emissions by 2050
The IEA stresses that to reach net zero, the world Scenario (NZE) called for coal use to decline
must follow its Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Sce- from 5.25bn tonnes in 2020 to 2.5bn tonnes in
nario (NZE), which is consistent with limiting 2030 and 600mn tonnes in 2050. Oil consump-
global warming to 1.5°C by 2100. tion needs to never return to its 2019 peak,
However, current policies or indeed govern- shrinking from 88mn barrels per day in 2020 to
ment pledges are nowhere near this. The NZE 72mn bpd in 2030 and 24mn bpd in 2050.
contrasts with what the IEA calls its Stated Poli-
cies Scenario (STEPS), based on the energy and End of coal
climate measures governments have actually put For coal, the report’s different forecasts illustrate
in place to date. how much more needs to be done. In the STEPS,
In this scenario, annual emissions stay at global unabated coal use in the energy system
around today’s levels by 2050, even almost all of falls by around 5% by 2030, while in APS it is
the net growth in energy demand is met by low 10% and 55% in the NZE.
emissions sources. The report calls for an end to new coal and
As a result, the world will miss its 1.5 degree a managed decline in emissions from existing
target by 2100, and global average temperatures assets, although the report admits this is difficult,

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