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digits.
● March 18: Monetary policy committee meeting decision at 14h Istanbul time.
February 18: Hold at 17%.
● Lira loans flow: Slowed but still positive.
● USD/TRY: Sell-off in EM currencies followed ultra-bullish calls to test below 7.00, as usual. The magnitude of the deterioration and the longevity of global markets shake-up will be watched.
● Balance of Payments: Current account deficit continues. Financial inflows will be watched in March following the EM markets shake-up in the last week of February.
● Eurobond auctions?: The Treasury did not come up with an auction in February while corporate sales also stopped.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues continue (See Section 7.1.4).
● Snap polls?
2.2 Business and consumer confidence surveys
Some 57% of residents in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and commercial capital, cannot earn enough money to make ends meet, according to a survey by the Istanbul Municipality.
Only 3% of respondents said that they saved money in January while 45% said that they borrowed money in some form.
Nearly 19% of respondents defaulted on a credit card payment.
Some 61% of those who said they were unemployed were not hopeful of finding a job in the short term. More than 18% said they sought a job in January but could not find one.
Nearly 51% believed that economic conditions in Turkey would further deteriorate in the months to come.
2.3 Politics - shorts
The top three countries for UK waste exports are Turkey (39%), Malaysia (12%) and Poland (7%).
At least 18 journalists in Turkey were subject to physical attacks in 2020. Students at Bogazici University in Istanbul have been protesting against the
decreed appointment of a new rector.
The number of pending applications from Turkey at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) increased by 27% in 2020 to 11,750. The number accounts for nearly one-fifth of the total cases waiting to come before the ECHR.
7 TURKEY Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com