Page 6 - AfrOil Week 12 2022

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

Libya: Long-term restart to remain a key risk for Libya for at least the next
Cassidy also commented on Libya’s prospects 12 months.”
for resuming deliveries of gas to Europe, say-
ing he expected the outlook for this country to Egypt: Regional co-operation
improve in the long term and not in the short Moving eastward to Egypt, both Kinnear and
term. Cassidy indicated that Egypt’s chances of boost-
Referring to Green Stream, an underwater ing gas exports to Europe were likely to hinge on
pipeline that pumped gas from fields operated co-operation with other producing states in the
by Italy’s Eni to Sicily between 2004 and 2014, he East Mediterranean region.
said: “Libya may have the opportunity to export As far as Egypt’s government is concerned,
higher volumes of gas to Italy and achieve higher Kinnear commented, regional collaboration
gas prices. In the longer term, Libya has poten- offers the best options for balancing the needs of
tial to supply much more gas to Europe. Eni and domestic consumers and the lure of the export
BP are stepping up efforts to explore for gas and market. “Cairo is certainly keen to boost out-
help Libya shape a gas strategy.” put and take advantage of increased European
He also noted that there was a possible alter- demand. Rising domestic demand, however,
native to the idle pipeline, saying that Libya’s means there is less gas available for export,” he
National Oil Corp. (NOC) did have the option told NewsBase. “Longer term, Egypt may be
of trying to reopen its LNG plant and terminal at able to transform itself into a hub with pipelines
Marsa el Brega. Even so, he acknowledged, this connecting Israeli fields to its LNG plants at
facility has not been operational since 2011. Idku and Damietta. Israel has an increasing gas
For his part, Kinnear focused on the like- surplus, with domestic production overtaking
lihood of Libya’s ongoing political turmoil consumption in 2018.”
hampering any efforts to resume gas exports Cassidy, meanwhile, noted that two gas
to Europe, whether via Green Stream or in the delivery routes were under consideration in the
form of LNG. “A resolution of the political dis- region – the EastMed pipeline and the Egyptian
cord in the country anytime soon is unlikely,” he gas hub plan. Either of these schemes could
said. “The political process established last year come into play “if there are more discoveries
is on the rocks with the re-emergence of two offshore Israel/Egypt/Cyprus/Lebanon,” he said.
competing governments this month.” But whichever delivery route is chosen, he
He did indicate, though, that he still had added, it will take several years before large
some hope. “This isn’t to say that it isn’t possible, quantities of Egyptian and East Mediterranean
as further investment could happen without a gas start arriving in Europe. “Short term, it
political resolution or even an easing of tensions. looks like coal might replace some Russian gas,
Eni and NOC, for example, were reportedly in but longer term, Egypt ... will end up supplying
talks recently over boosting gas reserves,” he more gas to Europe. This will include Israeli and
told NewsBase. “Political risk, however, is likely maybe Cypriot gas,” he said. ™

Angola’s downstream hopes

After years of working to expand its downstream capacity, Angola expects to see tangible
progress on two of three new refinery construction projects within the next few months

WORK on a greenfield refinery in north-west- Once realised, these facilities will increase
ern Angola is expected to begin late next month, Angola’s refining capacity 10-fold and far out-
WHAT: with equipment set to begin arriving at the loca- strip demand, thereby turning the country into a
Work will begin on the tion of a similar facility soon after, according net exporter of both crude and refined products.
Soyo refinery in April and to a representative of the national oil company
equipment will reach the (NOC) Sonangol. Soyo
Cabinda site in June. To the south, the company remains optimis- Faustino Conde Pongue, member of the execu-
tic that it will be able to bring the flagship Lobito tive committee at Sonangol Refining & Chem-
WHY: refinery on stream within the next five years, icals (Sonaref), said on March 18 that work
Angola’s refining capacity after nearly two decades of delays. would start by the end of April on a 100,000 bpd
currently stands at just The plant plans are part of a broader strat- refinery at Soyo in the country’s northern Zaire
38,000 bpd.
egy to modernise and expand Angola’s refining Province. A date of April 28 has been set for the
WHAT NEXT: capabilities, which are currently limited to the laying of the foundations, with the plant slated to
ageing 38,000 barrel per day (bpd) Luanda refin-
begin operations in 2024, he said.
The Lobito refinery may
be finished in five years. ery near the capital, and to reduce dependence His comments came during a presentation to
on imported fuels. the municipal administration of Soyo.

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 12 23•March•2022