Page 26 - RusRPTDec19
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GDP
RUB/USD (avr)
RUB/USD (EOP)
Brent $ / bbl (avr)
CBR rate
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 99 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 17 11 10 7.75 7.75
65.7 65.3 64.5 65.4 64.7 65.4 66.4 70 75 7.75 7.25 6.75
3.2 Macro outlook
A Reuters poll in November found economists are predicting the Russian economy will record growth of 1.1% in 2019. This is slightly up from last month’s forecast of 1%, but still solidly below analysts’ expectations and the government’s hopes at the start of the year. Analysts also cut their outlook for 2020 on the back of weak consumer confidence, expecting the economy to grow by 1.6% next year — down from the most recent prediction of 1.8%.
While holding back growth, slow spending by the government on infrastructure projects could boost the Russian government’s own already-impressive balance sheet. The government’s risk of a default, as measured by the price for credit default swaps (CDS), hit its lowest level since before the global financial crisis last week, and Loko Invest’s Kirill Tremasov highlighted the state’s strong finances, which look set to trigger another upgrade for its sovereign credit ratings over the next few months.
Expectations for slow growth are coupled with a downbeat outlook for inflation. The consensus forecast is for inflation to come in at an annual rate
26 RUSSIA Country Report December 2019
www.intellinews.com
