Page 28 - RusRPTOct21

sector (13.1%).
However, agricultural output was nearly flat y/y, while the healthcare and education sector posted only 2.5% growth.
Sberbank CIB is predicting economic growth at a solid 4.5% this year.
The Russian economy continued to normalize on a y/yasis, although many sectors have begun to see stagnation, the housing marketing an exception.
The GDP growth rate slowed to 4.7% y/y in July vs. 10.3% y/y in 2Q21, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. The prints from many sectors were worse than our and consensus expectations on the production side, while incomes and unemployment both improved thanks to higher profits that translated toetter paychecks.
Analysts expect the momentum to fade in 2H21 as consumption stabilizes following the spending of excess savings, as well as due to lower loan growth, although social disbursements could delay this process for a month or so. With the worse-than-expected prints, a risk that FY21 growth forecast of 4.8% y/y drops to 4.5% y/y says Sova Capital.
28 RUSSIA Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com