Page 30 - RusRPTOct21

In their forecast, the Ministry predicts GDP growth of 4.2% for 2021 and 3% for 2022-24, greater than in previous versions. However, inflation is expected to get worse. The Ministry expects the growth in consumer prices toe 5.8% in 2021, the highest in five years. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov attributes this to global inflation, the disruption of value chains, and poor Russian harvests.
The Ministry’s inflation prediction is still lower than that of the CBR, which forecasts CPI at 5.7-6.2%. The Ministry’s predictions are also at odds with a recent OECD report that puts Russia’s economic growth at 2.7% and inflation at 6.1% for 2021.
This is the third version of the forecast by the Ministry this year. “The main thing that served as the basis for revising the forecast is the fact that the Russian economy recovered faster than we had planned,” a representative said. President Putin also recently remarked that Russia has overcome the economic downturn due to the pandemic and the economy has recovered.
On September 21, the government approved the draft federaludget. The Budget assumes a surplus in the next two years and a deficit in 2024. The Budget is due to the State Dumay October 1.
Russia’s Central Bank has provided its base macroeconomic forecast of the country’s main economic indicators for 2024. The data haseen published in the draft of the main areas of the monetary policy of the bank of Russia for 2022-2024.
Particularly, the regulator projects Russia’s GDP growth at 2-3% in 2024, inflation at 4%, as well as the price of Urals crude oil at $50 perarrel. The projections on GDP, inflation and the oil price for 2021-2023 remained intact.
The Central Bank expects GDP growth of 4-4.5% in 2021, 2-3% in 2022 and 2023, annual inflation at 5.7-6.2% in 2021, 4-4.5% in 2022, 4% in 2023. The price of Urals oil is projected at $65 perarrel in 2021, $60 in 2022, and $55 in 2023.
Meanwhile, the bank of Russia expects the average key rate at 5-6% per annum in 2024. The regulator last raised the key rate in July by 100asis points at once - to 6.5% per annum. According to the Centralank’s projections, the key rate will equal 5.5-5.8% on average in 2021, 6-7% in 2022, and 5-6% per annum in 2023.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
30 RUSSIA Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com