Page 31 - RusRPTOct21

4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Russia’s industrial production in August slowed and was up +4.7% y/y
vs. +7.2% y/y in July, falling short of the bloomberg consensus estimate of +5.8% y/y as the lowase effects wear off, Rosstat reported on September 24.
The slowdown was broken down into gradually dissipating support from lowase effects in mining & quarrying, and, more importantly, an abrupt drop in passenger car manufacturing (20% m/m SA) due to the lateAugust pause in production by AvtoVAZ and others, VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note.
“On our numbers, IPooked 0% m/m SA in August vs. 0.6% m/m SA in July, while Rosstat estimates ‐0.8% m/m SA – a third monthly decline,” Alexander Isakov, chief economist at VTB Capital said.
“We expect IP to turn round in the near term as household related output receives a boost from social payments, while OPEC+ easing restrictions will support mining & quarrying and petroleum related manufacturing,” Isakov added. “We reiterate our FY21F industrial production and GDP projections at +5.0% y/y and +4.3% y/y, respectively.”
The cross read for monetary policy is neutral, since the CBRoard’s signals at the last meeting in September suggest that the current slowdown was toe expected after the economy reached its pre pandemic size and shape.
31 RUSSIA Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com