Page 57 - RusRPTOct21

MinFin uses MinEconomy's guidelines to calculate the parameters for the budget. MinEconomy currently assumes Urals of $62.2/bbl for 2022, $58.4/bbl for 2023 and $55.7/bbl for 2024.
The exchange rate assumptions of the budget
MinFin assumes the USDRUBaverages 72.1 in 2022 and gradually moves up afterwards in line with the external inflation differential.
The expected budget balance
The current preliminary estimates see revenues up +5.2% y/y in 2022 and spending down 1.9% y/y in 2022, resulting in a budget surplus of +1.1% GDP for next year vs. a deficit of 0.2% GDP for this year. Thereafter, MinFin's projections see a +6.3% y/y and +4.1% y/y increase in spending in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a +2.1% y/y and +1.1% y/y increase in revenues in 2023 and 2024, respectively, resulting in a gradualudgetalance reduction and a slight deficit of 0.2% GDP in 2024.
The key source of the revenue growth
The key to MinFin's vision is an improvement in non-oil & gas revenues, which it sees gradually rising in 20222024. MinFin's expected proceeds from
57 RUSSIA Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com