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14 I Companies & Markets bne May 2019
year, putting it among the fastest shrinking nations in the world along with other Central and Southeast European countries. Although the increase in family support has helped fertility rate rise from 1.2 to 1.5 in the last eight years, the percentage of women of reproductive age will be significantly lower in the future, which makes it a mounting challenge to overcome the demographic trap.
Orban's fiercely anti-immigration stance rules out using immigrants to address the labour shortage. Instead, he has sought to boost Hungary's birthrate, as he seeks to present his country as the last bastion of Christian values. Even though the cabinet's family support schemes favour the upper-middle class families with at least three children, they are backed by around 80% of the population, surveys have shown. The generous handouts also helped the government led by Orban's Fidesz party win its third supermajority at the last election in April.
Central Asia’s poorest economy Tajikistan is forecast to experience the fastest growth across the post-socialist space by the end of this century, more than doubling to over 18mn by 2100. The government has drawn up a national development strategy, aimed at turning Tajikistan into a modern industrial state. It aims to increase GDP to 2.6 times the current level
by 2030, and to diversify the economy, in particular through industrialisation.
Yet the signs so far are that Tajikistan will struggle even to feed its fast growing population, let alone take advantage of the growth in its working age population to boost the economy.
More than one in 10 Tajiks are estimated to have left the country to find work due to the poverty and lack of opportunities at home.
Already an estimated 1mn of its 9mn population are in Russia working at any one time, with smaller numbers heading for other countries such as Kazakhstan. Tajikistan (along with neighbouring Kyrgyzstan) is among the most remittance- dependent countries in the world. As a tiny nation on China’s western border, perhaps inevitably the economy has become increasingly dependent on Chinese money, but reports from Tajikistan say this has had little impact on employment as major Chinese contractors typically bring their own workers with them. Tajikistan has been identified as one of eight
Mongolia to overtake Bulgaria in 2076
countries at risk of debt distress due to its borrowing from China – a potential problem for future generations.
Three quarters of Tajikistan’s populations live in rural areas, putting it among the world’s least urbanised countries;
as populations grow, heavier migration to Dushanbe and other urban centres can be expected, as well as abroad. While agriculture is an important part of the economy, Tajikistan has a food deficit, that is only likely to worsen as the population – many of whom are engaged in subsistence farming – grows. “The small, mountainous, landlocked country often faces natural disasters and threats to food security, which negatively affect human development and economic growth,” says a report from the International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies. “Nutrition indicators for the country are the worst in Central Asia, and chronic malnutrition is of significant concern.”
As Tajikistan's population grows, Southeast Europe’s most populous country and largest economy, Romania will see numbers decline by 39% by the end of this century. Romania has already seen a mass exodus of working age Romanians to seek better opportunities in other EU member states, in particular Italy and Spain, since it joined the EU in 2007.
Anti-government protests in Bucharest in early 2017. Many
of those on the streets were young, educated Romanians who are deeply fed up with official undermining of the country's anti-corruption efforts.
Like the major CEE economies, Romania has benefitted from considerable inward investment, initially into low value manufacturing, but increasingly now into high tech sectors. The country has emerged as a centre for the IT and outsourcing sector, with companies looking increasingly
to smaller university towns to meet demand for workers. But Romania now faces a critical skills shortage, with more than four out of five employers in the country are facing difficulties in finding employees with the skills they need,
a 2018 survey from international recruiter ManpowerGroup showed. This puts Romania among the greatest sufferers from the global talent shortage identified by Manpower. With emigration set to continue – especially as the
once vibrant anti-corruption fight is undermined by the government – this will only increase.
Mongolia is already experiencing rapid urbanisation that has left the capital Ulan Bataar struggling to cope. The hills around the capital, a largely communist built city now with with many new builds added, are densely dotted with traditional felt yurts, now forming massive shanty towns whose population has doubled that of the inner capital. Utilities and infrastructure simply can’t keep up, and as
a result residents of the yurt shanties are burning wood
or whatever solid fuels they can find during winters in the world’s coldest capital. This means Ulan Bataar is also one
of the most polluted cities in the world, with the government
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