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bne May 2019 Companies & Markets I 15
extending school holidays this winter so children could avoid the foetid air that is causing serious heart and respiratory illnesses.
Nor is life too easy out in the steppes, where overgrazing has degraded an estimated 70% of pastureland, with some now turning into desert. This is a vicious circle says the WWF: “The consequences of changing livestock herding techniques and the over-exploitation of land and plant resources, coupled with effects of climate change lead to decline of animal and plant habitat areas and loss of resources”. Climate change is further causing problems for herders, with the extreme cold winters known as “dzuds”, that result in the deaths of millions of livestock, becoming more severe, in turn driving more Mongolians in to the cities.
Economically Mongolia was riding high, becoming one of the fastest growing economies in the world during the 2000s thanks to the exploitation of its vast mineral wealth, mostly destined for the Chinese market. But this failed to result,
so far, in wider and more sustainable growth and a fall in commodities prices plunged Mongolia plunged into
a recession from which it is only now recovering following a $5.5bn IMF-led bailout in 2017.
Bulgaria has the dubious distinction of being projected as the world’s fastest shrinking nation in the first half of this century, the UN data shows. Its population has already declined by 2mn since it peaked at just under 9mn in 1989, and is forecast to almost halve to just 3.7mn by the end of the century.
Living in the EU’s poorest nation, Bulgarians – including young, educated Bulgarians – have left the country in droves since it joined the bloc in 2007, leaving behind them deserted villages and unfilled workplaces. As in Romania, the country has been unable to stem rampant corruption, failing even to get a serious anti-corruption drive off the ground. Case in point: at this moment a massive corruption scandal concerning apartments cheaply sold to top officials (including the head
of the anti-corruption agency) is still unfolding. Efforts
to develop emerging sectors such as IT are stymied by the ongoing brain drain from the country.
Kazakhstan’s population has undergone more of an ethnic shift than an increase over the last three decades. It took a
Kazakhstan to overtake Poland in 2079
hit after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to a large extent because of the exodus of ethnic Slavs and Germans, as well
as the negative impact of the transition on demographics
seem across the post-Soviet space. At the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, Kazakhs were a minority in their new country, but by 2018 they made up around two-thirds of the population. And population growth was rapid during the boom years of the early and mid 2000s, so by 2011, the overall size of the Kazakh population had already exceeded that in the Soviet era. At the same time, Kazakhstan was developing its massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources, so per capita GDP soared. Looking ahead, growth isn’t expected to be as fast as in fellow Central Asian states, especially Tajikistan, but a steady increase is anticipated for the rest of this century.
In terms of providing for and nurturing the population, Kazakhstan has a pretty good record so far of investing some of its oil and gas wealth into education, first with the Bolashak Programme under which thousands of students were sent
to foreign universities, and later with the opening of the Nazarbayev University in the capital, newly renamed Nur-Sultan.
But there is a patchy record in freeing up businesses from bureaucracy to allow them to grow and provide workplaces for the growing population; corruption, nepotism and the high degree of state ownership are all issues that the authorities will have to tackle, not least to maintain political stability. At present, there is some uncertainty about Kazakhstan’s future course as the country’s long-standing president Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down in March after three decades in power. A snap election is due to take place
in June, which may provide some more clarity.
Breed like rabbits, was the message from a video from Poland’s health ministry, released on YouTube in 2017, at a time when it was becoming evident that Poland’s population was falling steadily despite rising wages and living conditions in Central Europe’s largest country.
Continuing the current decline, the population is due to fall behind that of Central Asia’s economic powerhouse in 2079 at around 25mn people, after which it will continue the decline to 21.2mn by the end of the century.
Poland’s dwindling population has increasingly become
a constraint on growth, as unemployment has dropped
to a post-Soviet low and wages risen to record levels.
The answer in the staunchly Catholic country, ruled since 2015 by the ultra conservative Law and Justice (PiS) has been to encourage Poles to have more babies. Meanwhile, restrictions on abortion sparked mass protests in the Central European country. Like neighbouring Hungary, Poland, which has clashed with the EU over migrant quotas. Warsaw has a strong anti-migration stance, though it has been happy to take in fellow Christians from Ukraine to fill vacant workplaces.
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