Page 25 - IRANRptOct20

5.1.1 ​current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
15,816
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Total Exports
130,500
95,500
82,000
88,800
63,000
Total Imports
62,661
59,999
51,914
48,138
52,007
40,097
41,945
54,459
Trade Balance
68,692
42,049
32,291
35,231
20,5000
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran had over $100bn of gross official reserves in 2019, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves in March last year. It also indicated that Iran ran a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its latest World Economic Outlook released on April 14 that Iran’s current account balance​ across 2019, 2020 and 2021 would likely be at -0.1%, -4.1% and -3.4% of GDP, respectively, as a result of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
5.1.2 ​Import/export dynamics
Iran claims progress in persuading Korea to release $7bn of funds frozen under US pressure
Some progress in persuading South Korea to release $7bn of Iranian funds locked in its banking system under pressure from the US has been reported by Iran’s presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi, Mehr News Agency reported on September 23.
Speaking on the sidelines of a cabinet session, ​Vaezi reportedly said​ that Iran was seeing “some green lights” from Seoul in “fulfilling their obligations” as regards the frozen assets. The funds are largely made up of payments for Iranian crude sold to South Korea before the US put a stop to such sales during spring last year by announcing that no more sanctions waivers would be awarded to a handful of nations that continued to buy oil from the Islamic Republic.
"We’ve discussed the issue with the Korean authorities. Also, preparations for legal action have already begun,” Vaezi said.
In August, Iranian MPs, responding to Seoul’s inaction in transferring the funds, lobbied the Rouhani government to ban Korean goods including Hyundai and Kia goods.
Hyundai, Kia, Samsung and LG are among South Korean brands with a strong presence in Iran. They have remained active on the Iranian market despite pressure from the US to pull out.
25​ IRAN Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com