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4.3 Industrial sectors and trade 4.3.1 PMI Production dynamics
It is a move past the 50-level that is supposed to indicate a recovery in the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data but PMI compiler IHS Markit has bowed to the Turkish distortions. In its charts, a score of 45 is now enough for the TUIK to signal a recovery in the industrial production data, even though there is no connection between industrial production and manufacturing output in the GDP figures and the monthly industrial production data releases.
The headline PMI was at 48.1 in March, down from 52.4 in February and marking the sharpest decline since May last year.
IHS Markit: “Stocks of purchases were also reduced, as were stocks of finished goods as firms noted a general reluctance to hold inventories given current uncertainty.
“The delivery of purchased items was also impacted heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic, with suppliers’ delivery times lengthening to the second-largest extent since the survey began in June 2005.”
Also of note, the rate of input cost inflation in Turkish manufacturing “remained marked during March, with currency weakness the main factor behind the latest increase in input prices. Some supply shortages were also behind the
17 TURKEY Country Report May 2020 www.intellinews.com
