Page 31 - RusRPTMay20

3.2 ​Macro outlook
The head of the Audit Chamber, veteran policymaker Alexei Kudrin, has estimated that the best-case scenario for Russia in 2020 is 3-5% GDP contraction ​that would require more than 5% of GDP state support. In the worst-case scenario Russia could see an economic drop of 8%, the same as in 2009.
The Russian economy can lose 3% of the GDP in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic​, Deutsche Bank said in a report on April 3. "The purchasing managers index (PMI) released this week indicate a significant slowdown in March, which happened even before the self-isolation regime introduction, and since its length will vary depending on the region, a further slowdown is seen inevitable," the bank said. The forecast assumes normalization of the situation in May. An official of the bank told PRIME that the last Deutsche Bank’s forecast envisages a decline of Russian GDP in 2020 by 0.3% but it will be revised soon, taking into account a 4% average decline in the region.
The Russian government has prepared two stress tests for companies:
first that the coronavirus pandemic means isolation to the end of June and the price of oil is $20 per barrel; and in the second a strict quarantine lasts to the end of September with oil at $10. In the first the dollar will be worth more than RUB80 to the dollar with inflation for the year is 4.5%. In the second the dollar will be worth more than RUB89 and inflation will be 5.5%.
International rating agency Moody’s expects that Russia’s national GDP will decline by 5.5% in 2020​ but will grow by 2.2% in 2021, the agency said on Tuesday, according to TASS. The rating agency lowered the outlook for
31​ RUSSIA Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com