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Russian GDP growth to 0.5% on March 25 on the back of falling oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic.
Citibank estimates that the economy and individual sectors will operate at about 55% of capacity during the lockdown in April, which may translate into a 4.2% annual contraction of growth in 2020, Reuters reported on April 3.
4.0 Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -2.7
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
4.1 Industrial production
In March, supply side indicators were either barely black or had already turned red: industrial production was up +0.3% y/y, construction was roughly flat at +0.1% y/y, and cargo shipments were down 7.1% y/y.
In industrial production, growth was supported exclusively by manufacturing (+2.6% y/y), which, in turn, was underpinned by the production of food and petrochemicals.
VTBC’s GDP estimate for March stands at +1.7% y/y, as proxied by the output of base industries.
32 RUSSIA Country Report May 2020 www.intellinews.com
