Page 62 - RusRPTMay20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Key parameters: draft federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
GDP
RUB bn
108,414
112,863
120,364
128,508
GDP growth
% y/y
1.3
1.7
3.1
3.2
Average price of oil
$
62.2
57
56
55
RUB/USD exchange rate average
65.4
65.7
66.1
66.5
Inflation average
% y/y
3.8
3
4
4
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,363.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Federal budget: surplus allocation and debt financing
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimates that by the end of 2020 the National Welfare Fund (NWF) will be cut ​from current RUB12.9 trillion​ to RUB7 trillion​, ​Kommersant ​daily and Interfax reported on April 19 citing Siluanov's appearance on Rossiya 1 TV channel.
Given the current oil price of $28 per Barrel of Brent, the funds in NWF would be sufficient to cover the state spending deficits by 2024, Siluanov estimated.
In March the ministry estimated that the liquid part of the NWF will be sufficient to cover budget deficits for 6 to 10 years at oil price of $25-30 per barrel.
62​ RUSSIA Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com