Page 63 - RusRPTMay20
P. 63
The liquid part of the NWF amounts to RUB11 trillion, out of which the government already used RUB2 trillion this year to buy the controlling stake in Sberbank from the Central Bank of Russia (which through CBR's dividends will find its way into state budget). Less another RUB2 trillion, makes RUB7 trillion estimated by Siluanov.
Siluanov previously estimated that state support package amid coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic accounts for RUB3.1 trillion (2.8% of GDP), and that RUB2 trillion will be used to cover the budget deficits from the NWF.
As reported by bne IntelliNews, policymakers and analysts have urged the government to increase the COVID-19 response package at least two-fold, bringing it closer to 5% of GDP or more.
But Siluanov argued that as the government is not revising the spending downwards this year despite the drop in oil prices, the total amount of state support for the economy in 2020 could be estimated at 6.5% of GDP.
Recent reports estimated Russia's total state reserves and liquidity buffers at about RUB17.7tn ($238bn), or over 16% of GDP, while country's debt position is favourable and reserves are not short on foreign currency.
Russia has allocated 2.8% of its budget to counter the COVID-19 and its effects, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters on April 16. However, later annoucements suggest the Kremlin may spend up to 7% of GDP or half the NWF to boost the economy.
Under confirmed plans at the time of writing, direct allocations to small and medium-sized business to pay wages will exceed RUB80bn and 970,000 organizations and individual entrepreneurs are to receive them.
The ministry will allocate about RUB2 trillion from the National Wealth Fund in support of the economy in 2020, if the oil prices remain at US $20 per barrel.
The measures of fiscal support of people and business in all areas amount to 6.5% of the GDP. "Measures of an unprecedented scale amount to support population and some industries and spheres of activities are envisaged. The total amount of fiscal support can be estimated at 6.5% of the GDP," Siluanov said.
The budget loss of tax and other non-oil and gas revenue can amount to more than RUB1 trillion in 2020, he said.
63 RUSSIA Country Report May 2020 www.intellinews.com
