Page 56 - BNE_magazine_10_2020

56 Opinion bne October 2020
STOLYPIN:
Whatever is happening to Putin?
Mark Galeotti director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence,
an honorary professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies
When the full details of his constitutional reforms were unveiled, many rushed to judgement, saying that this proved Vladimir Putin planned to rule until 2036. Honestly, the thought that in 2020, Putin had already planned his next sixteen years – until he was 83 – seemed something
of a stretch. Rather, this has all the hallmarks of a classic Putin move, giving himself options which, closer to the event, he could chose between.
In any case, judging by his actions (and inactions) this year, if anything Putin is getting less concerned about the long-term, less cautious and consensual in his methods, less strategic
in pretty much every way. Physically active and carefully- cossetted, there is no reason why the man would not live until 2036; it’s harder to see his system lasting as long.
System vs man
To some, what is currently underway is a comprehensive transformation of the political system, but it is questionable whether that is really what we are seeing. Talk of a “more powerful presidency” fail to recognise the extent to which in practice the boss can already get whatever he wants adopted as policy. The very real problems associated with actually turning policy into practice, whether in his National Projects
www.bne.eu
or digitisation of the economy, are not about a lack of legal power but practical authority, expertise, and resources.
Furthermore, there are clear contradictions tearing at the apparent new system even before it is in place, especially over regional power. New powers allowing the Kremlin and its regional proxies increased control over local officials
and similar moves that appear to be steps towards further centralisation sit uncomfortably with the implicit message of Prime Minister Mishustin’s recent outreach to the Russian Far East, as well as the way the COVID-19 response was quickly kicked into the hands of local officials.
Yes, there have been some striking changes in tone and detail this year, from the decision either to attempt to kill Alexei Navalny, or at least to cover-up and implicitly approve the attack, through to the clumsy handling of the constitutional reforms. To a large extent, as I discuss in my latest podcast, these should be seen not so much as reflecting a change in system, so much as a change in the instructions being given to this system.
In other words, its about people, not process – and one person in particular.