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58 Opinion
bne October 2020
Even if the National Projects do bear fruit – and their deadline has already been pushed back by six years – then this will not magically relegitimate the regime at the eleventh hour.
Of course, we don’t know for sure what is happening inside the Kremlin black box. Conceivably, Putin has decided that pandemic-shadowed 2020 is “taking out the trash” year, a chance to get all the bad stuff he might want to do out of the way in one go, and then concentrate on regaining his authority. This is unlikely, though, and if it is the case, also likely a foolish gamble, especially with genuinely-important State Duma elections coming up next year.
It is more likely that Putin is succumbing to the same problem as most authoritarians over time, becoming a caricature of himself. Older, less flexible, more dependent on a shrinking
MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS:
Belarus – out of the frying pan and into the “Rublezone”
Gunter Deuber, Head of Research at Raiffeisen Bank International and Marcus How, Head of Research & Analysis at ViennEast Consulting in Vienna
The fallout from the presidential elections in Belarus demonstrates how quickly a wholly domestic issue can become international and geopolitical – and the extent to which the Kremlin’s response to unrest on its doorstep is once again improvised as opposed to premeditated.
Belarus has always been unique in the post-communist region, a characteristic that is unlikely to change soon. It does not resemble Ukraine because its cohesive sense of national identity leaves few internal fault lines that may be exploited; nor does it resemble Armenia, given its strategic economic and political value to Russia. Its larger market is more sophisticated, while its territory provides a buffer between NATO members and Russia’s geographically exposed
western border.
Thus, while a hybrid military intervention by Moscow is unlikely, so too is an amicable settlement with the opposition. Moscow does not want to control Belarus, but it is seeking to control events in order to safeguard its strategic interests. It has decided that siding with President Alexander Lukashenko is the least bad option – for now and possibly some time to come.
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circle of yes-men, more detached from his own country, the temptation is to rely more on force and fiat, while his cronies take fullest advantage of his indulgence to enrich themselves and prosecute their private feuds.
Empires can coast a long time like this, relying on the loyal technocrats and administrators who do their best to keep the system working, regardless. But it also means they become increasingly brittle, vulnerable to the unexpected shock or challenge. In 1914, did anyone really think tsarism only had three more years? Meanwhile, serious longer-term threats, from the melting of the northern permafrost to the potential challenge from frenemy China, are largely going unaddressed.
Either way, this does not look like a leadership planning seriously for sixteen more years.
Moscow is pushing for a Union State deal between Russia and Belarus that will create a "Rublezone"
As such, the risk outlook in Belarus is clearer in the short to medium term than it appears. Without substantive political and economic support from Russia, Lukashenko would be very unlikely to be able to stay in office. However, through guaranteeing his position, Moscow is exploiting his weakness to consolidate its own interests ahead of a managed political transition in the coming years.
An offer that Luka can’t refuse?
The way in which Moscow is likely to accomplish this is through seizing the moment on the economic and political integration agenda between the two countries, which could include pulling Belarus into a much closer economic union, if not a currency union. Setting aside Lukashenko’s own political agenda, there is an economic argument for doing so.
Lukashenko signed off on a Union State deal with Russia in 1999 that would extend and deepen the current Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) partnership by creating a “Rublezone” that mirrors the Eurozone: open borders with totally free movement of labour, capital and goods as well as a common currency “from Brest to Vladivostok”, as Lukashenko said last week.