Page 7 - MEOG Week 22 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

‘Coma’ option back on agenda

amid nuclear deal impasse

IRAN THERE are indications that Iran and the US are [by former US president Donald Trump to put
moving towards an acceptance of something the IRGC on the list] was a clear misuse of the
towards the “coma option” – or an interim agree- FTO list. Of the 73 organisations currently on
ment – to break the current deadlock over how the list, 72 are – as creators of the list intended –
to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA. non-state groups. The IRGC is the only one that
NewsBase reported on the “coma option”, as isn’t.” However, with the US mid-term elections
envisaged by Trita Parsi, executive vice president looming in November, US President Joe Biden
of the Quincy Institute, last December. probably calculates that he can ill-afford to take
Under this scenario, Parsi explained in an the IRGC off the list as his opponents would
essay for MSNBC, the agreement between Iran present the move to voters as weakness.
and the major powers “would all but die, but the Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly very close to
parties would pretend that it is still alive to avoid having enough enriched uranium for at least one
the crisis that its official death would spur… nuclear bomb – though weaponising it – some-
Think of how Western powers have pretended thing Tehran claims it has no ambitions to do –
that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has might take a few more years.
been alive for the last decades”. One possibility for an interim deal to preserve
Parsi, author of “Losing an Enemy – Obama, but not fully restart the JCPOA, in which Iran
Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy”, reflected is supposed to verifiably keep its nuclear pro-
on the unattractive options if the nuclear deal gramme in the civilian sphere in return for the
diplomacy fails – such as a tightening of sanc- lifting of economic sanctions, would see Iran
tions on Tehran in an effort to persuade it not to firstly stop producing uranium enriched to 20%
develop its nuclear knowhow to an unacceptable and 60% uranium-235 and limit itself to produc-
point in the military sphere, covert operations ing uranium enriched to less than 5%, and, sec-
in an attempt at thwarting the Iranian nuclear ondly, return to compliance with an additional
development programme, or war – and con- protocol so that the International Atomic Energy
cluded that the “coma option” might appeal to Agency (IAEA) could again verify that Iran was
all sides. not producing centrifuges for a clandestine
If the JCPOA entered a “coma”, Tehran, added enrichment facility.
Parsi, “would keep its nuclear leverage while For its part, the US would drop sanctions on
strengthening its economic and political ties purchases of Iran’s oil and lift sanctions on Iran’s
with Moscow, Beijing and other governments financial institutions, including its central bank.
that would disregard Washington’s sanctions. Such a possible interim arrangement was on
While clearly not optimal, it is preferable to both May 31 described by Seyed Hossein Mousavian,
a sanctions-less deal and war with the U.S. This Middle East security and nuclear policy special-
would, however, require that Tehran temper ist at Princeton University, and a former chief of
its nuclear advances, which it might do since Iran’s National Security Foreign Relations Com-
it no longer would press the U.S. to rejoin the mittee, in an opinion piece for Middle East Eye.
agreement.” Hossein Mousavian wrote: “The reality is that
One obstacle to sealing an agreement to Israel, the US and Iran are already in a shadow
the re-establishment of the JCPOA is Tehran’s war, one that has been playing out for years on
demand that the US delist Iran’s Islamic Revolu- land, sea, air and in cyberspace. Biden’s Iran
tionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from its blacklist of negotiator told the congressional hearing that
foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs). As Paul ‘nuclear talks aren’t dead, but almost’. An interim
Pillar, a senior fellow at Georgetown University deal could still salvage the accord and potentially
and former executive assistant to the director of provide the basis for full compliance by both
US Central Intelligence, has stated: “This move sides after the US elections this November.”™

Week 22 01•June•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P7