Page 11 - GLNG Week 46

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

Germany set for heavier reliance

on Russian gas in coming decades

Russia is already Germany’s biggest supplier and its role is set to expand

PERFORMANCE AS the EU de-facto leader, Germany has over the gas year commencing on October 1 has been
the years advocated for energy policies that have capped at a mere 9.3 bcm, versus 11.8 bcm in the
WHAT: enabled many countries in Europe to reduce previous 12 months.
Germany will become their gas imports from Russia, by far the conti- The Netherlands has other, much smaller
increasingly dependent nent’s biggest supplier. But Germany itself is set fields. But low gas prices, draconian rules on
on Russian gas as it to grow steadily more dependent on Russian nitrogen emissions and the government’s delay
phases out coal and state giant Gazprom for its energy needs as it in finalising an incentives package mean the
nuclear power and its looks to phase out coal and nuclear power and outlook is bleak.
alternative supplies alternative supplies dwindle. Norway, on the other hand, is set to see supply
dwindle. expand over the 2020s, although there is a risk of
Shrinking alternatives decline after 2030.
WHY: Russia is already Germany’s largest supplier,
The Netherlands is while Germany is Russia’s biggest customer. Ger- LNG
closing down its giant man gas demand rose to just above 90bn cubic Germany has a raft of LNG regasification pro-
Groningen field in 2022 metres last year, while its Russian imports came jects in the works, aimed at diversifying its
and Norwegian output to 55.5 bcm, although a portion was transited to import mix. But none of them have reached a
could start falling after other countries. A further 27 bcm came from final investment decision (FID).
2030. Norway and 23.4 bcm from the Netherlands, The most advanced of the schemes is a
with the three suppliers accounting for 92% of planned 8 bcm per year import terminal in
WHAT NEXT: Germany’s total imports. Brunsbuettel, backed by Dutch gas grid oper-
Germany will need new German consumption is forecast to exceed ator Gasunie, German tank storage provider
LNG import capacity to 110 bcm by 2034, Rystad Energy estimates. Gas Oiltanking and Dutch chemical storage firm
diversify its supply, but and renewables are expected to play a much Vopak. The group aim to strike a binding deal
Nord Stream 2 is also in larger role in the country’s energy mix, as it with German power firm RWE for the bulk of its
its interests in terms of proceeds with shutting down its nuclear power capacity by the end of the year. An FID should
energy costs and security. plants (NPPs) by 2022, followed by all its coal- be taken shortly after that.
fired generation by 2038. Another 10 bcm per year project in
Meanwhile, supplies from the Netherlands Brunsbuettel, led by Germany’s Uniper, showed
and Norway are set to shrink over the coming initial promise when ExxonMobil reached a
decades. The colossal Groningen gas field in provisional deal to book a large portion of its
the Dutch North Sea is due to be shut down in capacity in 2019. But its fate is now up in the air.
mid-2022, following decades of earthquakes Uniper said on November 6 it was review-
caused by production activities. Its output for ing the plan and might decide to convert the

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