Page 5 - AfrOil Week 13 2021

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

For one thing, the conflict has been grinding indicating before March 24 that it intended to
on for more than three years. Mozambique’s resume work before the end of the month.
government and FADM have been fighting However, these hopes have now been dashed.
ASWJ since October 2017, and the conflict has Rather than returning workers to the Afungi
already led more than 700,000 people to flee Peninsula site and stepping up the pace of con-
their homes. According to UNHCR, the refugee struction, Total has evacuated more staff mem-
agency of the United Nations, the number of dis- bers and scaled back operations once again.
placed people could climb to 1mn by mid-year if Instead of remaining secure within the perim-
the crisis does not abate. eter marked out by Mozambique’s government,
For another, the conflict has the potential to it has seen ASWJ ambush hotels in Palma where
wreak a certain amount of havoc in the region. some of its employees were taking shelter. Addi-
Since ASWJ functions as the local arm of the ter- tionally, rather than working to keep itself out of
rorist group known as Islamic State (Daesh), its the fray, it has heard Mozambican officials such
clash with FADM has wider geopolitical impli- as Omar Saranga, a spokesman for the Ministry
cations. It could also spur diplomatic tensions of Defence, inform the public that the Islamists The PIB may not
between Mozambique and neighbouring states, are deliberately and specifically targeting gas
some of which have already expressed concern projects. make Nigerian
about the possibility that refugees from Cabo
Delgado may cross into their territory. Lessons to be learned deepwater
Mozambique’s government is seeking help
Another ramp-down from the international community, in that it has projects more
These considerations are serious enough on moved beyond working with foreign security competitive
their own. But they look even more serious in contractors with unsavoury reputations such as
light of the large-scale investments contem- South Africa’s Dyck Advisory Group (DAG). It
plated by Mozambique LNG and the other con- has accepted Portugal’s offer of military training
sortia – and in light of the fact that ASWJ is now and has brought US military advisors and spe-
openly targeting project sites. cial forces into the country for counter-terror-
In recent months, the Islamist group’s troops ism training.
have been moving closer and closer to the com- Even so, ASWJ has seen that attacks on gas
plex that Mozambique LNG is building on the installations get results. They may not lead
Afungi Peninsula. Last August, they forced Total to clear territorial gains, but they do attract a
to stop using the port of Mocimboa da Praia as great deal of attention (and they may also be
its main delivery point for equipment needed encouraging Islamic State loyalists to travel to
to build the LNG plant. Last November and Mozambique). Additionally, they bring FADM
December, they staged a series of attacks that troops to Cabo Delgado, thereby exacerbating
led the French company to ramp down opera- long-standing tensions between the province
tions and evacuate thousands of workers from and the central government while creating even
its onshore construction site in January. more disorder.
These events have thus far not deterred Total. As such, ASWJ may very well step up attacks
The French major has remained committed to on Mozambique LNG facilities in the near
resuming work and has been in negotiations term. Officials in Maputo will therefore have to
with Mozambican authorities on the establish- demonstrate their commitment to turning the
ment of a security perimeter in the area. These tide in order to reassure Total – and the other
talks appear to have been fruitful, and Total was investors that hope to learn from its example. ™

Week 13 31•March•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P5