Page 7 - DMEA Week 34

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

to 2% of GDP last year. That said, there are rea- the sea bed, adding: “We will go down a further
sons to be cautious. For one thing, it will take 1,000 metres ... and data shows we will proba-
time for the necessary infrastructure to be put bly reach gas there too.”
in place before the gas can be extracted—Mr. The find is close to an area where maritime
Erdogan said that the aim is for gas to be ready borders of Bulgaria and Romania converge and
for use by 2023. Even then, the boost to Turkey’s not far from Romania’s Neptun block. That,
external position may only be temporary. until now, was the largest gas find in the Black
“There is a risk that the authorities respond Sea in decades. It was discovered eight years ago
to the improvement in the balance of payments by Petrom and Exxon. Romania so far only has
position by loosening policy. The resulting shallow-water gas projects, with the deep-water
pick-up in domestic demand would leak into find yet to be exploited. A company backed by
imports and cause an offsetting deterioration in The Carlyle Group is also exploring off Roma-
the current account position.” nia, with the objective of bringing up gas in 2021.
Reuters reported many officials and analysts Rosneft has explored in the Russian part of the
as cautioning that it could take up to a decade for Black Sea but without concrete results.
gas from the Black Sea find to come online, while The Black Sea reserve is unlikely to sate the
it would need billions of dollars of investment to appetite of Erdogan for hydrocarbons. Turkey
build up the infrastructure for production and remains in dispute with Greece and Cyprus
supply, but it also cited Sohbet Karbuz, director over the borders running through the eastern
of hydrocarbons at the Paris-based Mediterra- Mediterranean as it searches for oil and gas in
nean Observatory for Energy, as observing that contested waters. A similar row with Egypt is
Turkey may move ahead swiftly with investment rumbling. Crete, meanwhile, has complained
decisions. that the Erdogan palace refuses to recognise its
“The process will move very quickly, in terms existence on the map where potential gas and oil
of financing, time and procedures. Help will deposits are concerned.
probably be needed from foreign companies Erdogan said he also expected “good news”
from a technical and technological perspective from exploration activities in the eastern Med-
but I see 2023 as a reasonable target [for extrac- iterranean. If that particular good news turns
tion],” Karbuz said. out to be particularly “good”, the oil and gas
execs might have to factor in the arrival of more
Data ‘indicates more gas’ French warships. Standing shoulder to shoul-
The gas discovery is located in waters 2,100 der with Greece, French President Emmanuel
metres deep in the Tuna-1 zone, 150 kilo- Macron has lately become deeply unimpressed
metres (93.2 miles) from Turkey’s coast. by the activities of Turkey’s survey vessels and
Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said drill ships, invariably out at sea with a naval
drilling extended another 1,400 metres below escort. ™

Week 34 27•August•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P7