Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 50 2022

FSUOGM PIPELINES & TRANSPORT FSUOGM

Analysts say Turkmenistan told US

diplomats ‘it’s not interested’ in Caspian

gas-to-Europe connector project, wants

major pipeline

TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN has informed US diplomats Pipeline, Aliyev said it was up to Turkmenistan:
that it is not interested in a modest connec- ‘They have to make a decision. They want us to
Ashgabat wants the tor project that would allow some substantial do it. They will have to take some action. We will
original idea of a 30 Turkmen gas flows to cross the Caspian Sea not initiate action.’”
bcm pipeline. for further transit via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan has the fifth largest gas reserves
Turkey to European markets, according to two in the world, but China stands as its sole major
academics. gas export market. Moscow might frown on any
“[Turkmenistan] is signaling that it won’t Turkmen willingness to enter into a project that
get out of bed for anything less than the dec- could replace vast amounts of Russian gas no
ades-old idea of a 30 bcma [billion cubic metres longer available to Europe given the fallout over
per annum] pipeline. Building such a line, and the Ukraine war.
more importantly arranging the onward trans- Roberts and Bowden concluded that the
portation and sales in Turkey and EU, would “problem is the near-total mismatch between
be far more complicated than a simple connec- European requirements and Turkmenistan’s
tor,” wrote John Roberts, a a senior nonresident aspirations. Europe wants gas now. In technical
fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy terms, this could be accomplished in relatively
Center and Julian Bowden, a former economist short order, such as through the Trans Caspian
with BP and a senior visiting research fellow with Connector project. This would link Turkmen-
the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), istan’s and Azerbaijan’s offshore facilities with
in an analysis published by the Atlantic Council. a 78-km pipeline, and could be put in place at
They added: “Moreover, Turkmenistan an estimated cost of around $400-600 million
would probably demand a long-term contract within a few months of securing the necessary
structure which the EU itself cannot provide, approvals of both countries and the necessary
and which European companies might be reluc- financing.”
tant to sign. Overall, nothing could be completed On the other hand, they said, “a 30-bcma sys-
before 2030, by which time the EU should have tem from Turkmenistan to Italy, roughly twice
resolved its current [energy] supply crisis and be the size of the SGC [Southern Gas Corridor
far along the path to a renewables-based energy already running from Azerbaijan to Italy], would
future.” cost vastly more than the $20 billion required for
The authors of the analysis acknowledged in the SGC’s initial pipeline components”.
a footnote that they are on the advisory board Turkmenistan already has some capacity
of a project to lay a 78-kilometre connector line to feed gas to Europe via the Azerbaijan route,
between the Petronas-operated Magtymguly thanks to gas swap pipeline arrangements
field in Turkmenistan and gas-gathering facil- made with Iran. The analysis authorts noted,
ities operated by BP in Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chi- however: “Although the current swap via Iran
rag-Gunashli oilfield. demonstrates that gas from Turkmenistan can
They also observed: “On November 25, already reach Azerbaijan by pipeline, either
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev delivered the directly or indirectly, lack of transparency and a
most pertinent summary of the current impasse. 3 bcma limit to Iranian pipeline capacity render
Asked by one of the writers of this piece about it almost irrelevant in the context of European
the status of discussions on a trans-Caspian supply.” ™

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 50 15•December•2022