Page 4 - AfrElec Week 42

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
Green expansion cannot
keep pace with growth in
demand and emissions
The IEA has raised its five-year green energy expansion forecast to 50%, although this is not enough to rein in emissions, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
Green capacity set to grow by 50%
WHY:
Supportive policies and falling costs are making green energy cheaper
WHAT NEXT:
Better system integration and lower investment risk are needed to drive forward more expansion and to reduce emissions
THE IEA’s Renewables 2019 market analysis and forecast is out. While forecasting 50% growth in renewable generating capacity by 2024, it admits that green energy cannot account for all new power demand, meaning continued fossil fuel expansion and rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Nevertheless, the IEA, which unites the world’s developed economies, did say in its report that green energy would match fossil fuels in terms of output for the first time by 2024.
The share of renewables in global power gen- eration is set to rise from 26% today to 30% in 2024, the report found.
The IEA’s base case predicts a 50%, or 1,220- GW, rise in global renewable capacity to 3,721 GW in 2024, while its accelerated case forecasts a 60% rise to 4,036 GW in 2024.
IEA CEO Fatih Birol said that the falling cost of wind and solar technology and more support- ive government policies and regulatory regimes were driving the take-up of renewables.
“Their increasing deployment is crucial for efforts to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, reduce air pollution and expand energy access,” said Birol.
IEA’s figures are traditionally conservative, but even the agency’s best accelerated case sug- gests that renewables will not be enough to meet growing power demand.
Therefore, the grim news is that a growth in fossil fuels will to be needed in the next five years to continue to meet growing demand for power.
Growth figures
In terms of capacity, the IEA’s base case states that renewables is forecast to rise 50% from 2,501 GW in 2018 to 3,721 GW in 2024. This 1,220-GW rise is the equivalent of current total US capacity.
Solar power is forecast to account for 60% of the 1,220-GW growth, with wind 25%, of which
offshore wind is 4%. Hydro is set to provide 10%, with the rest biomass.
The accelerated case suggests a 60% rise, meaning 4,036 GW in 2024. This case would require governments to address three main chal- lenges: policy and regulatory uncertainty; high investment risks in developing countries; and system integration of wind and solar in some countries.
The study highlighted falling costs as a crucial driver of green expansion. The report said that capacity auctions were becoming more popular, as feed-in tariff (FiT) systems had proved to be too expensive, even though their generous tariffs had attracted investors when costs and risks were high.
Now solar tariffs have shrunk to $17 per MWh at auction for 2023 projects from $160 per MWh in 2014. Wind auctions have seen bids fall from $65 per MWh in 2014 to $30 per MWh for 2023 projects.
Regional leaders
The IEA said that China would account for 489 GW of new additions in the five years to 2024, 40% of the global total.
The five-year forecast for China is higher than that IEA’s previous forecast in 2018, which stood at 438 MW, because of improved system inte- gration in China, lower curtailment rates and enhanced competitiveness of both solar PV and onshore wind.
InEurope,the2019forecastis182GW,much higher than 2018’s 124 GW, because of higher planned renewables auction volumes and faster distributed solar PV growth to meet renewable energy targets.
The report found that distributed solar was set to take off in the coming five years, offering significant changes in power systems.
Distributed PV total capacity is set to more than double, surpassing 500 GW in the main
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 42 23•October•2019