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AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
forecast (and 600 GW in the accelerated case), almost half of total solar PV growth and a sim- ilar expansion to onshore wind. Commercial and industrial applications are set to provide the bulk of the growth, rather than residential connections.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where distributed PV offers great potential in rural and remote areas, 2.83 GW is set to be added by 2024, up from 2018’s forecast of 2.14 GW. This compares with just 0.59 GW of actual growth between 2013 and 2018.
Nevertheless, China will account for almost half of distributed PV growth with 185.67 GW, overtaking the European Union to become the world leader in installed capacity as early as 2021.
Cost-wise, the report has found that the cost of distributed PV will drop below residen- tial power prices in more and more countries by 2024, notably in China and India. This will increase distributed PV’s economic attractive- ness for private investors.
Heymi Bahar, IEA senior analyst for renewa- ble energy markets and one of the report writers, said in a press call that the favourable policies from governments and lower costs were equally responsible for the IEA’s higher forecasts.
He stressed that more renewables auctions in Europe had boosted the IEA’s forecasts, as had China’s success in reducing its problem of aban- doned, or curtailed, green projects through more grid connections and market reforms.
Many of China’s new wind farms had been unable to send their output to customers because of poor grid capacity or supply excesses.
The anticipated expansion in output is good news for a renewable sector where growth was static in 2018, with new additions amounting
to 178 GW in both 2017 and 2018, according to IEA figures.
Conclusion
Desipte growth figures, the IEA’s admission that green energy is not doing enough to meet power and emissions growth is a major source of disap- pointment for the green movement.
Green expansion cannot halt the rise in emis- sions. In June, BP’s 2018 Statistical Review found that emissions had risen by 2% in 2018, while demand for power grew by 3.7%.
BP noted that consumption of renewable energy had expanded by 14.5%, but this still accounted for only around a third of the increase in total power generation. Coal and gas also accounted for roughly a third each.
The real question is whether the expansion of renewables is enough for the power sector to play a leading role in meeting the IPCC’s 2 degree target.
Fossil fuel use is also forecast to rise, thereby creating more GHG emissions. This means that the power sector is not reducing emissions and will not contribute towards meeting the climate change goals.
The IEA has forecast growth and develop- ment, and has identified the best performing areas such as wind, while distributed PV offers the fastest growth potential.
However, to meet the challenges of climate change, the IEA in its report called on govern- ments to put forward stable policies that address system integration and investment risk.
Only by doing this will the power sector be able to keep track with meeting the international community’s climate, air quality and energy access goals.
Week 42 23•October•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P5
