Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 31 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

Does Russia have any

friends left in Southeast

ASIA The geopolitical earthquake that is the Russian orbit, such as Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam,
invasion of Ukraine has clearly strengthened Malaysia and Thailand, keep trading with Rus-
alliances on both sides. Russia and China’s sia. But they have seen an impact on their econ-
friendship is, at least on paper, ‘unlimited’. The omies, especially in the tourism sector, in access
consensus among most other East and Southeast to raw materials, inflation of input prices and
Asian countries is that Moscow’s actions are ille- payment problems after Russia’s exclusion from
gal and contravene international law. SWIFT.
On the economic front, key regional powers Politically, they are trying hard not to take
Japan and South Korea were among Russia’s larg- sides.
est trading partners in 2021, each selling $8bn President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, who will
of mostly high value-added products such as chair the G20 summit in Bali in November and is
cars, machinery and electronics, hard to replace the second largest importer of Ukrainian wheat,
domestically. visited Kyiv and Moscow in June.
Sanctions have caused these exports to col- Short of ending the war or pressing the adver-
lapse. Where South Korea sold $935mn in trade saries to resume agricultural shipments, he is
to Russia in February 2022, the last month before trying to salvage the Bali meeting. Some G20
the invasion, by June this had fallen to $337mn. members have threatened to boycott it if the
Imports from Russia, mainly oil and coal, fell Russian president joins. Putin has confirmed his
from $1.7bn in February to $800mn in June. attendance. As Widodo invited Zelenskiy as well,
These numbers dwarf the $73bn that ally the summit could end in quagmire.
China exported to Russia in 2021, but here Fence-sitting by ASEAN countries will be
growth is slowing down as well, especially in severely tested this week, when they decide to
machinery and electronics, as Chinese produc- grant Ukraine Treaty of Amity and Cooperation
ers are wary of Western sanctions. in Southeast Asia (TAC) status. This is de facto
Other large countries not directly in the West’s symbolic, but would send a strong message of

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