Page 27 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

bne July 2020 Cover Story I 27
Belarus looking forward to a long hot summer as presidential elections loom
Ben Aris in Berlin
In his first 15 years in office Belarus
President Alexander Lukashenko
enjoyed impressive popularity. Elected in 1994, he stood on a platform of breaking with the past. The earthy former collective farm boss won power on a populist anti-corruption platform and reforming the country.
What he delivered on was to maintain
a pseudo-Soviet system that protected the populace from the worst ravages of the collapse of the central system. The sanatoria still worked, incomes and jobs were guaranteed and pensions were paid and were enough to support the old. Compared to the chaos in countries such as Russia that suffered a full blown economic collapse, the relative stability of Belarus sustained Lukashenko’s rule for next decade, largely paid for by generous energy subsidies from Moscow that ensured Lukashenko’s loyalty to the Kremlin on foreign policy matters.
But now the transition era is coming
to an end. Belarusians watching his increasingly authoritarian approach
– rule by decree, clamping down on NGOs, independent media and political opponents – and they are beginning
to tire of Lukashenko. The countries around them have flourished after the pain of shock therapies faded. In the Baltics to west the standards of living are on a par with the rest of the EU. Even to the east incomes in Russia have soared, and while the political system remains tightly under the control of the Kremlin, the quality of life has risen dramatically, as have incomes and personal freedoms.
Lukashenko is about to stand for
his sixth term in office. With these presidential elections there has been an unprecedented surge in political opposition to Lukashenko, albeit in
a very sedate and low-key Belarusian fashion.
Citizens have queued for hours to sign petitions to allow opposition candidates to stand against the president in the upcoming elections in the most open rebellion to Lukashenko’s rule yet.
“I can nearly guarantee you that Lukashenko has less than 50%,” Viktor Babariko said in a recent interview. “That’s what makes these elections unique.”
Turning tide
The dissent is driven by a decade of economic hardship. Since the 2008 global crisis the largely unreformed Belarusian economy has been struggling.
More recently, the cash-strapped Russian government has started to cut down on its energy subsidies. The so-called Russian tax manoeuvre will cost the Belarusian budget up to $3bn in the coming years in lost revenues and the economy doesn't generate enough money on its own to pay for Lukashenko’s neo-socialist state.
The coronacrisis has only catalysed the process. Lukashenko’s refusal to take the epidemic seriously and his advice to his citizens to wash their hands in vodka “and maybe drink a little” has been widely ridiculed while the infection rates exploded.
“The COVID-19 pandemic further eroded trust. Lukashenko denied the gravity of the problem, refused to lock the country down, and allowed football games and a military parade to continue. This was unpopular
– an opinion poll in April showed approximately 70% support for strict social distancing measures and the cancellation of all mass events,” Katia Glod wrote in an commentary entitled “Twilight in Belarus.”
The public took matters into its own hands and went into voluntary isolation, but as with an absent parent, small businesses received no support from the state as retail sales collapsed. The failure to inform the public eroded confidence in official statistics and the state-owned media, further undercutting Lukashenko’s ability to form public opinion.
As a result, two credible opposition candidates have emerged who, if allowed to stand, could oust the incumbent Lukashenko.
The first is the former head of Belgazprombank, Viktor Babariko;
the other is the former head of
a technology park, Valery Tsepkalo.
A third contender, Sergei Tsikhanovski, is often described as Belarus’s “Navalny,” who uses his YouTube channel to give voice to the grievances of people from small towns by engaging with the people directly on social media. With over 235,000 subscribers, Tsikhanovski used his YouTube channel to attract protestors to public rallies under the slogan: “Stop the cockroach.”
All three have had run-ins with the authorities, who are determined to stymie their appeal and reach.
Tsikhanovski was jailed on fabricated charges to stop him running and bar
him from the elections. Now his wife Svyatlana is trying to run in his stead and has collected thousands of signatures for her candidate application. Another seven opposition figures were arrested along with Tsikhanovski at the start of June as the state cracked down on the opposition. Tsikhanovski was charged with violating public order and assaulting police at
a rally to collect signatures in the city of Grodno. Belarus watchers say it is likely he will be held in detention until after the August 9 elections.
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