Page 29 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

bne July 2020 Cover story I 29
Viktor Babariko ran Belgazprombank for 20 years before standing down Valery Tsepkalo is from the establishment, a former Belarusian ambassador to
recently to run in the presidential elections.
hundred and possibility thousands, according to some accounts.
Lukashenko blames the upstart campaigns on Russian interference
and claims they are being funded by Russian oligarchs, in what seems a veiled reference to Babariko’s connection with Gazprom.
The Belarusian KGB (the only state security service in the former Soviet Union to keep its ominous Soviet-era name) has been busy arresting over 200 bloggers, journalists, protestors and activists.
It is unclear just how the candidates in the race stand, as official polls are not to be trusted and unofficial ones are limited. By some accounts Babariko
is the most popular, getting over 50% support amongst the electorate.
Lukashenko’s own rating has collapsed, according to the informal polls, and is down at 3%, according to one online poll that was quickly shut down by the authorities. However, that sparked a meme on Belarusian social media of “Sasha 3%”, lampooning the president for his poor showing in the ratings. Another meme sparked by Tsikhanovski’s cockroach burn is protestors now carry slippers at rallies with which to kill the pest.
The president is looking rattled. He defied public health concerns to hold a May 9 Victory Day parade with full
the US and ex-head of the High Tech park.
honours, presumably as a platform for him to look presidential. Even Moscow, for whom the parade is even more symbolically significant, postponed its parade to June. Belarus currently has 54,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) – significantly more than the 29,700 in neighbouring Poland, which has four times its population.
“Citizens say they are fed up with the lack of the rule of law, administrative mismanagement, the boorishness of Lukashenko and public officials, and old-fashioned Soviet ideas on how to run an economy. People want to be listened to and are demanding fair elections. The desire for change runs through many layers of society,” says Glob.
Afraid of losing control, the president sacked the entire government on June 4. On May 25, Lukashenko, Central and Eastern Europe's longest-ruling head of state, said that the reshuffle is "a matter of principle" for people to see whom he would work with after the election.
But what smacks more of Lukashenko circling his wagons ahead of a difficult election is that he mostly appointed siloviki, or members of the security forces, to positions in the new government, shoring up his grip on power.
“The new administration set out an agenda for state protectionism and the top-down management of the economy.
That looks panicky, and will not forestall a sharp economic contraction, with GDP forecast to fall 5-6% this year – the first time that an election has coincided with a recession,” Glob said.
Lukashenko must be feeling isolated as his traditional strongest ally Moscow steps back from Minsk over the heated issue
of energy subsidies. At the same time, although Lukashenko has been flirting with the West, which was hoping to put a wedge in between the one-time farmer and Moscow as relations soured, Europe will remain sceptical of Belarus until it sees some real reforms put in place.
Leading members of the European Parliament responsible for EU-Belarus relations have condemned the new wave of arrests of presidential election candidates, opposition politicians and peaceful protestors and warned new sanctions could be applied unless the government backs off.
It promises to be a hot summer in Minsk this year.
“With legitimacy ebbing and stagnation increasingly unpopular, Lukashenko’s regime is short of options. If he holds on to power through electoral fraud and repression, public protests will continue. Civil society is awakening and its genie will not easily be put back in a bottle. Change may come sooner rather than later,” says Glob.
www.bne.eu