Page 40 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

40 I Southeast Europe bne July 2020
Europe and Nato’s Libya nightmare outcome would leave Russian and Turkish military bases staring across the Med
bne IntelIiNews
What's the worst scenario that could emerge from conflict- torn Libya for Europe and Nato? Perhaps a divided country with permanent Russian and Turkish military bases staring across the Mediterranean from its east and west, respectively?
Such an outcome may still sound a little far-fetched, but it can’t be ruled out. June 14 brought a report from Reuters that related how a Turkish source
had disclosed that Turkey and Libya’s internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) were discussing possible Turkish use of two military bases in the North African country with a view to a lasting Turkish presence in the south Mediterranean. After Russia apparently flew 14 MIG-
29 and Su-24 fighter jets to desert sites controlled by the GNA’s adversary, the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Marshal Khalifa Haftar, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin now had access to two air bases in Libya and there were fears that he might want to make that, and perhaps more, a permanent arrangement. The commander of AFRICOM, Gen. Stephen Townsend, said of the Russian move: "Just like I saw them doing in Syria, they are expanding their military footprint in Africa using government- supported mercenary groups."
Reportedly, no final decisions have been made over possible Turkish military
use of the Misrata naval base and the al-Watiya air base, recently recaptured by the Turkish-backed GNA.
Boosting oil, gas claims
A more permanent air and naval presence in Libya could reinforce Turkey’s growing influence in the region. That might help boost its claims
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to offshore oil and gas resources and pave the way for billions of dollars in contracting work, such as energy and construction deals, once the fighting ends. If there is one thing Turkey’s Erdogan administration needs right now, it is more revenues to help stave off a calamitous economic crisis.
“Turkey using al-Watiya ... is on the agenda,” added the quoted source. “It could also be possible for the Misrata naval base to be used by Turkey.”
Ankara threw its support behind the government in Tripoli last year after
the GNA signed a maritime demarcation accord that it says provides Turkish drilling rights near Crete. But it is opposed by Greece, Cyprus, Israel
and the European Union, with Athens complaining that the accord actually ignores the physical presence of Crete.
As things stand, it appears Russia is holding back from fully engaging with Turkey over a possible Libya ceasefire
Libya.liveuamap.com provides updates on military movements, political statements and other developments in the conflict.