Page 42 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

42 I Southeast Europe bne July 2020
Exit polls show sweeping victory for Vucic’s SNS in Serbian general election
bne IntelliNews
President Aleksandar Vucic’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has taken an easy victory in the June 21 general election with more than 60% of votes cast, exit polls from CESID and Ipsos showed a few hours after polling stations closed.
The party ran a campaign centred on the president (with the slogan “Aleksandar Vucic – For Our Children"), and capitalised on the increase in support for Vucic during the lockdown imposed after the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in mid-March.
The SNS also benefitted from the failure of the diverse field of opposition parties and coalitions — some of which boycotted the vote — to come together to make a credible challenge to the ruling party.
According to the exit polls, the SNS will win 62.5% of the votes, which would give the party 198 of the 250 seats in the new parliament — up from 131 in the current parliament.
The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), led by Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, the junior coalition partner of the government led by Prime Minister Ana Brnabic, looks to have taken 10.7% of the votes, around the same share as in the last general election in 2016.
Political scientist Jasmin Mujanovic wrote on Twitter that “the only real outstanding question in Serbia now [is] whether Vucic will continue to feign coalition politics w/ Dacic or whether he will pull the trigger on fully consolidating all rule under the SNS. He may choose to keep Dacic just for the optics.”
Out of the 21 parties and coalitions that stood in the election, the exit polls indicated that only one has clearly passed the 3% threshold to enter parliament, the party led by former water polo player Aleksandar Sapic, though others may have scraped through.
Four opposition parties and coalitions — the Alliance for Serbia, the Social Democratic Party (SDS), the Together for Serbia (ZZS) party and the reformist Civic Platform — decided to boycott the vote, claiming the election will be unfair. Despite this, according to SNS data, the turnout was slightly above 50%, similar to the level in previous general elections.
“Biggest loser of the election in Serbia tonight, SNS. The progressives appear to have won 60%+ and a 2/3 majority in parliament, but it is a pyrrhic victory without opposition in parliament the election is discredited and its rule less legitimate than ever before,” tweeted political scientist and historian Florian Bieber.
The election was supposed to be held in the spring but was delayed to early May due to the coronavirus pandemic. Several opposition parties objected to the timing and demanded a further
Delay, but Vucic refused.
One suggestion is that the attack on Borissov might come from fugitive gambling mogul Vassil Bozhkov, dubbed Cherepa (The Skull). Previously Bozhkov, who is hiding in the UAE after being charged on 18 counts in Bulgaria, initiated an attack against Borissov, claiming he had blackmailed him along with Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov.
However, Bozhkov has not admitted any involvement in the recording or the photos.
Other analysts suggest that the ethnic-Turk Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) could have been involved in the attack, jointly with Bozhkov or not, as a way to weaken Borissov ahead of the general election next spring and force him to rule in official coalition with the DPS.
The DPS is officially in opposition, but many believe the party controls Borissov behind the scenes and is his unofficial coalition partner.
Bad neighbours
In a response to the photos, seen by many as an overreaction, Borissov accused his main political rival, President Rumen Radev, of spying on him with a drone. The two politicians live in villas near each other, provided to all prime ministers and presidents during their mandates.
Radev, a former commander of Bulgaria’s air forces who enjoys a high rating as President, admitted that he has a drone and knows how to use it, but denied spying on Borissov.
Although nobody believes Radev has been spying on Borissov, the prime minister’s accusation gave rise to lots of jokes about bad neighbours. And another person, who was the prime minister’s closest ally for years, is seen as a more likely bad neighbour.
Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Borissov’s former right-hand man, left the ruling Gerb Party earlier in June, saying the party has no vision or morals anymore. Moreover, he suggested he might set up his own political project. Local media is already reporting Gerb party members have begun to quit. But it remains unclear if Tsvetanov will actually follow through on his threat.
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