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bne July 2020 Eurasia I 59
including an agreement to handle the construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan. However, the greatest push by Russia remains its attempt to convince Uzbek authorities to join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Uzbekistan has already agreed to take observer status within the EEU this year and it appears that many parties in the most populous Central Asian state remain convinced that a full membership would benefit the nation.
The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), a respected Uzbek economic policy think tank, released the results of a recent poll on the attitudes of public sector and private sector Uzbek professionals on Uzbekistan’s potential accession into the EEU. The respondents’
administration’s office for the protection of citizens’ rights.”
Borderline non-existent
The EEU also comes with political undertones of dependence on the former Soviet master, but dialogue over these concerns is borderline non-existent.
The limited discussions on opposing
an EEU membership in independent news outlets and online social media
are generally dismissed by the Uzbek government. Moreover, Uzbek officials consistently portray the EEU as the best option for the future of the country and for achieving economic growth.
Uzbekistan's EEU ascension may look like a matter of time, unless it follows the example of Tajikistan and continues
"The monopolisation of the Tajik market by members of the president’s family was created by establishing artificial barriers to competition," Gadoyev said. "Such as unreasonable requirements for standardisation and labeling of goods, refusals to issue licenses and certificates, overstatement of the customs value
of goods during customs clearance, constant delays in the customs clearance process, inability for businessmen
to appeal against unreasonable requirements or somehow protect their rights and interests."
In this light, Russia and China may have advantages in influencing individual Central Asian nations. Just as Tajikistan seems to prefer China's lead, Uzbekistan may be more eager to forge closer ties with Russia. And, even then, preferences may shift based on changes in the lead- ership of each country.
Russia cannot compete?
Friedrich Ebert Foundation's online magazine, IPG, in an article published in April 2020, argued that Russia is economically incapable of competing against China in the region.
"But Moscow cannot compete with Bei- jing in Central Asia: the economic struc- ture will never allow Russia to become
a major buyer of raw materials," the article written by Temur Umarov reads. "Therefore, on the part of Moscow, [the circumstances call for] competition with the countries of Central Asia for the Chinese market."
If true, Russia's geopolitical control over the region may be inevitably set to wane.
“Uzbek officials consistently portray the EEU as the best option for the future of the country and for achieving economic growth”
views translated into 74% support for Uzbekistan joining the EEU. The think tank polled 1,300 people. The major- ity of those polled by the CERR were private-sector representatives and col- lege students (64%) and the remainder were public servants.
The think tank previously led a study on the economic impacts of joining
the EEU on Uzbekistan at the request of the country's president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. It concluded that economic gains and only marginal losses would be expected in all 10 surveyed domestic sectors.
“President Mirziyoyev is likely to listen closely to the conclusions presented by the CERR given that the organization effectively acts as the only economic policy body under the presidential administration,” the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based institute for research and analysis, argued. “Indeed, the CERR’s current head, Obid Hakimov, additionally serves as the deputy to the president’s advisor and, in the past, led the
to postpone its final decision, despite outwardly expressing interest in joining. Tajikistan is another post-Soviet country seen as mainly benefitting from an
EEU membership as nearly two-thirds of its GDP relies on Russia for migrant remittances.
Opposition leader in-exile Sharofiddin Gadoyev told Russian media earlier in 2020 that Tajikistan's reluctance to join the trade bloc lies in the personal interests of President Emomali Rahmon and the ruling family as the family maintains a monopoly over the Tajik domestic market.
Chinese Y-8 transport plane modelled on the Russian Antonov An-12.
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