Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 49 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Can Russia sneak gas into the EU

via a Turkish gas hub?

Russia may be hoping to maintain a portion of its former market share in Europe indirectly.

RUSSIA RUSSIA has been eagerly pushing for the fur- Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine
ther development of Turkey as a “gas hub” for means that the cutting off of Russian gas tran-
WHAT: its gas supplies to Europe. Analysts are asking if sit via that 100 bcm per year route is a constant
Russia wants to expand this simply a ruse to dodge sanctions and sur- risk. That leaves only the 31.5 bcm per year
Turkey’s role as a gas reptitiously continue to export gas to EU mem- TurkStream pipeline that runs under the Black
hub and has resumed gas bers that are trying to wean themselves off their Sea to Turkey as a functioning transport route,
flow to Azerbaijan. Russian dependency. Many EU members have although only half of this capacity is used to
pledged to stop importing Russian supplies alto- pump gas to Europe, while the remainder is ded-
WHY: gether over the coming years. icated to the Turkish market.
This indicates that Russia Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Russia has proposed adding two more strings
wants to find ways to hold establishing Turkey as a hub for delivering gas to TurkStream, in order to double its capacity.
on to its market share in supplies to the EU in October, after explosions The Turkish market itself is already saturated
Europe in spite of the EU destroyed three of the four strands of the Nord but Turkey enjoys not only access to Azeri and
commitment to phase out Stream gas pipelines that run under the Baltic Iranian piped gas, but also LNG. And the coun-
its supplies. Sea on September 26. try is targeting first production from the offshore
Russia has few other remaining options Sakarya field in 2024, which is expected to cover
WHAT NEXT: to send gas to Europe. Sanctions and coun- its growing gas demand for years to come. Tur-
The plan would take ter-sanctions imposed by Russia and Poland key could in theory feed all of Europe with Rus-
time to implement and have prevented any westward flow of Russian sian, Azerbaijani and Iranian gas entering the
would leave Russia very gas to Central Europe via the 33bn cubic metre European pipeline system from the south-east
dependent on Turkey as a per year Yamal-Europe pipeline that transverses of the Continent.
transit route. Poland to Europe. Moscow has made no secret about its

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 49 12•December•2022