Page 115 - RusRPTDec21

Gazprom has already approved, and started implementing, a plan to pump gas into five European underground storage facilities for November (see our Morning Comment of 10 November).
According to AGSI+, as of 10 November, the volume of gas in Gazprom's storage facilities has remained at practically the same level since the end of last week. At the moment, Gazprom's own UGS in Europe are only 33% full.
The newsflow might contribute to higher TTF prices, which are at $899.165/kcm (which is 4.8% higher than the day before).
9.1.2 Automotive sector news
Russia’s new car and LCV market saw the fourth consecutive month of y/y declines in October, as vehicle sales (excluding Mercedes-Benz and BMW) decreased 18% y/y to 126,204 units, according to the latest data published by AEB.
This was mostly due to the microchip shortage continuing to weigh on supply, along with some base effect of October 2020. Nevertheless, the 10mo21 sales (excluding Mercedes-Benz and BMW) were still up 10.5% y/y to 1.3mn units, which was due to the strong 1H21. We also note that the rate of y/y decline moderated somewhat in October vs. September, when car and LCV sales fell 23% y/y. Assuming that the rate of the y/y decline will remain broadly unchanged in November and December vs. October, we expect that the FY21F sales will increase around 5% y/y to some 1.7mn vehicles.
Sollers’ UAZ brand outperformed the market in October, with its sales increasing 2% y/y to 3,728 units. However, its 10mo21 sales were still below the overall market trend, up just 2% y/y to 25,875 vehicles. In October, Ford Transit (produced by the JV with Ford, is consolidated by Sollers) sales declined for the first time in 2021, by 3% y/y to 1,605 units, although its 10mo21 sales growth still outperformed the market – up 49% y/y to 15,616 units. We think the October decline reflects the supply constraints, as the demand for the model remains strong. We remain neutral on Sollers (Hold; 12-mo TP RUB250; ETR 11%) due to the uncertainty over the prospects for its UAZ brand as well as the company's strategy toward minority shareholders.
The AvtoVAZ/Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi alliance continues to be the market leader, despite the decline of its market share by 6pp, from 40% in October 2020 to 34% in October 2021. Its 10mo21 market share was 36% compared with 39% in 10mo20. Avtovaz’s Lada brand sales saw a significant decline in October, by 31% y/y to 25,573, with 10mo21 sales being up 11% y/y to 294,422 units.
Among other Russian producers, GAZ increased its LCV sales 17% y/y to 5,881 units in October and 21% y/y to 44,683 units in 10mo21.
115 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com