Page 31 - RusRPTDec21

Bulletin “talking trends”
http://www.cbr.ru/collection/collection/file/36594/bulletin_21-06_e.pdf
The Russian economy grew 4.3% y/y during the third quarter, but the post-coronavirus recovery is almost over. The result was close to Sova Capital’s expectation (+4.2% year on year) but below Bloomberg consensus (+4.5% y/y), according to RosStat’s preliminary GDP growth estimate for 3Q21 released on November 17.
“The solid 3Q21 figures were likely due to the still strong but waning momentum in retail and wholesale trade, manufacturing, and freight and passenger turnover,” Sova Capital said in a note.
At the same time, mining and quarrying along with the financial sector likely did better than in 2Q21, Sova Capital reports.
“On our estimates, the economy added just 0.15% SA quarter on quarter in 3Q21 after adding 2.1% SA q/q in 2Q21. The non-working period and partial lockdowns should lead to lower GDP growth in 4Q21 than previously expected, and our forecast is for growth of 1.7% y/y. Our outlook for Russia’s FY21 growth is 3.8%, which is lower than the estimates from CBR (+4-4.5% y/y) and Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (+4.2% y/y),” the bank said in a note.
During the previous quarter, the economy grew 4.3% y/y, which is close to
31 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com