Page 32 - RusRPTDec21

Sova’s forecast (+4.2% y/y) but below Bloomberg consensus (+4.5% y/y). The estimate is based on the production approach, which uses data from large and mid-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector.
According to RosStat, which disclosed no additional details, its 3Q21 GDP estimate was largely influenced by the sustained recoveries in retail (+5.3% y/y) and wholesale trade (+6.7% y/y), construction (+5% y/y) and manufacturing (+3.7% y/y), as well as in freight turnover (+6.8% y/y) and passenger turnover (+49% y/y).
Compared to 2Q21, most indicators saw their growth rates halve in 3Q21 vs. 2Q21, while the growth rates for retail and wholesale trade were four times lower.
“In our view, the main exceptions were mining and quarrying (+9.4% y/y), where the recovery in volumes has accelerated thanks to OPEC+ easing restrictions; and the financial sector, the growth in which came amid higher rates, although these were not enough to compensate for higher inflation and still buoyant demand for mortgages after the revision of the subsidized programmes,” Sova Capital reports.
“Russia’s economic recovery nearly stopped in 3Q21 after surpassing 4Q19 levels in 2Q21 (+0.15% SA q/q in 3Q21 vs. +2.1% SA q/q in 2Q21, on our estimates). The non-working period and partial lockdowns should cool Russia’s 4Q21 outlook, and we expect the country’s GDP growth to slow to 1.7% y/y in 4Q21 due to these restrictions. On our estimates, the 11-day partial lockdown in Moscow, the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg and other regions could cost Russia more than 0.3% of its FY21 GDP growth. As a result, we expect Russia’s FY21 GDP growth to be 3.8% y/y,” the bank added.
32 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com