Page 34 - RusRPTDec21

2%. This is lower than the budget forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (3%) and the IMF forecast (3.1%). In addition to the pandemic, growth will continue to be constrained by poor demographics with a real reduction in the workforce, structural and institutional weaknesses in the form of an excessive role of the public sector, low competition and dependence of the judicial system. The per capita GDP of Russia will stabilize at the level of $11-12k, that is, in the range of the “middle income trap,” the agency said. This is still below the 2012 level. Decarbonization is becoming a separate pro-inflationary factor, Kirill Tremasov, director of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank, said at the conference. According to him, the regulator "is at the beginning of assessing the path of energy transition", but already sees the phenomenon of "green inflation" in the form of an increase in demand for copper, aluminum, lithium and similar raw materials. What do I get with this?
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
34 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com