Page 66 - RusRPTDec21

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
The Russian government federal revenue growth accelerated further in the third quarter. The consolidated budget, which includes the budgets of the federation, regions and municipalities, and state social funds, had more than 40% more revenue in nominal rubles than a year earlier and more than 20% more than two years earlier. In January-September, revenue growth from two years ago was also close to 20%, reports Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) in its weekly update.
The growth rate of expenditure accelerated in the third quarter, with an increase of 10% year-on-year and 27% year-on-year in January-September, which is about 14% in real terms. As in the previous two recessions in 2010-2011 and 2017-2018, the budget deficit has disappeared. In September, the budget already showed a small surplus for the last 12 months.
“The ratio of budget revenue to GDP has risen to almost 37% in the fourth quarter. The last time the ratio was this high was in 2008. The increase has been driven by a gradual increase in non-oil and gas tax revenues from 2015 onwards. Their GDP ratio is over 30%. In contrast, budget revenues from production taxes and export duties in the oil and gas sector have declined as a share of GDP since the last record high in oil prices in 2014. In the last four quarters, the ratio was just over 6%. The expenditure-to-GDP ratio has fallen to just under 37%, after being almost 40% in the recession of 2020, the peak in
66 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com