Page 68 - RusRPTDec21

At the same time, spending on social items and healthcare has remained below the relative seasonal norms since September, despite the social allocations for 2021 increasing by RUB160bn.
Still, the federal budget revenues collection continued to beat the ministry's previous guidance, and VTBC analysts expect the total 2021 revenues to reach RUB24.9 trillion versus RUB23.8 trillion outlined in the most recent fiscal policy guidelines.
VTBC continues to anticipate the federal budget for this year ending up in a surplus, and lifts the forecast to 0.51% of GDP surplus.
Sberbank CIB also estimates that it is still likely that total budget revenues this year will exceed the planned RUB23.8 trillion by almost RUB1 trillion, which would result in a budget surplus of around RUB0.5 trillion (0.4% of GDP) or even higher for the full year.
This should be the case even if the growth of non-oil and gas revenues remains subdued over the remainder of the year due to an economic slowdown (given the soft lockdowns at the beginning of November and the possible introduction of coronavirus (COVID-19) passports with QR codes later this year), Sberbank CIB analysts argue.
Russia's budget remained in surplus in October to the tune of RUB0.5 trillion, bringing the surplus over 10m21 to almost RUB2 trillion.
The October surplus was the result of continuing growth in budget revenues, which were up 30% y/y, and virtually flat expenditures. The growth in budget revenues was driven by higher oil and gas revenues (up 133% y/y thanks to higher oil and gas prices, as well as an increase in production and a slightly weaker ruble), while non-oil revenues declined by 3.8% y/y.
Budget revenues reached RUB20.4 trillion in 10m21, up 35% y/y. Even if the growth of non-oil and gas revenues remains subdued over the remainder of the year due to an economic slowdown (given the soft lockdowns at the beginning of November and the possible introduction of Covid passports with QR codes later this year), it is still likely that total budget revenues this year will exceed the planned RUB23.8 trillion by almost RUB1 trillion, which would result in a budget surplus of around RUB0.5 trillion (0.4% of GDP) or even higher for the full year.
68 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com