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Opinion
February 8, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 21
On the other side of the fence, Moscow has raised eyebrows with a series of concerning declarations, including a pledge to “protect the interests of the faithful” in Ukraine in the same way it currently “defends the interests of Russians and Russian speakers”. That this is one of the same justifications Russia used to intervene in Crimea and the Donbass has not been lost on international observers. Just how Moscow will react to losing a significant source of soft power remains unclear: the alliance between the Russian patriarchate and Kremlin is centuries old, and the church has been accused of spread- ing disinformation in Ukraine since the takeover of Crimea. Most importantly, Russian President Vladimir Putin has exploited the patriarchate to promote his vision of a unified Russian identity.
Moscow eager for a quarrel
Tensions over the religious schism are running particularly high, given that Moscow appears to be already spoiling for a fight. Late last year, Russia assaulted Ukrainian Navy ships passing through international waters near the occupied Crime- an Peninsula, soon thereafter amassing near Crimea’s border with eastern Ukraine.
Russian ships have since kept a stranglehold on the Kerch Strait connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, all but blocking ship traffic to Ukrain- ian ports. Despite the clear violation of internation- al law – and a treaty between Russia and Ukraine agreeing to share both strait and sea – Moscow has yet to receive more than a mere slap on the wrist from international authorities. Even more concern- ing are reports Putin is preparing for further esca- lation. Leaked EU cables in December revealed the European bloc’s fears that nuclear warheads may have already been installed in occupied Crimea.
While Putin’s tactics of testing the West are famil- iar, if not further emboldened by relatively tepid
international condemnation, Moscow’s efforts to destabilise Ukraine are in particularly high gear ahead of the country’s presidential elections this spring. Pro-Western President Poroshenko is run- ning for reelection, and Putin is undoubtedly keen to discredit his government before Ukraine goes to the polls.
According to one political analyst, Putin “is hop- ing for, and may be committed to doing everything possible to bring about, a Poroshenko defeat”. While a victory by popular actor-turned-politician Vladimir Zelenskiy, who has active business in Russia, would be “Putin’s dream scenario for Ukraine”, Moscow would rather deal with almost anyone else rather than the current president.
Populist presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko, who looks likely to face Poroshenko in the elections’ second round, is running on an anti-Moscow message, demanding Russia to compensate Kyiv for the annexation of Crimea. Tymoshenko is one of Ukraine’s most divisive figures: venerated by many, skeptics nevertheless recall her warm relations with Putin during her terms as prime minister — Tymoshenko called the Russian strongman a “wonderful, dignified leader”, while he referred to her as “the only person in Kyiv he could work with”.
Tensions between Kyiv and Moscow were always sure to ratchet up over the election period. In the wake of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s newfound independence, however, Putin’s pushback is sure to be particularly acute.
Nicholas Kaufmann is a public affairs consultant currently based in Brussels doing contract
work for European institutions. His writings have been featured in the Moscow Times and Eurasia Review.