Page 6 - NorthAmOil Week 48

NorthAmOil COMMENTARY NorthAmOil
US becomes net exporter of crude and products in September
The US reported its first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products in September, and while the country’s producers are bracing for a slowdown in growth, subsequent months could show a similar trend
US
WHAT:
The US exported more crude and products than it imported in September.
WHY:
The country is thought to be moving increasingly closer to achieving energy independence.
WHAT NEXT:
While the US is less vulnerable to foreign
oil supply disruptions, this also puts downward pressure on crude prices.
THE US reported its first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949. This comes despite concerns over a slowdown in oil produc- tion growth in the country on continued low prices and mounting pressure on shale drillers from shareholders to prioritise returns over growth.
For now, though, the US continues to achieve new milestones in oil production and exports. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country exported 89,000 barrels per day (bpd) more of crude and products than it imported in September – the latest month for which data are available. Based on preliminary data, the trend is anticipated to continue into October. And while the US’ import and export figures will likely fluctuate over the subsequent months, this nonetheless marks a milestone that would have been considered unthinkable before the country’s shale boom started, around a decade ago.
“TheUSreturntobeinganetexporterserves to remind how the oil industry can deliver sur- prises – in this case, the shale oil revolution – that upend global oil prices, production and trade flows,” consultancy Rapidan Energy Group’s president, Bob McNally – a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.
And even amid warnings of a production slowdown, some remain bullish. Consultancy Rystad Energy predicted last week that the US was only months away from energy independ- ence. According to Rystad’s latest forecast, total primary energy production in the country will outpace primary energy demand by about 30% by 2030.
“This milestone follows a strong period of growth in both hydrocarbon and renewa- ble resources, and we forecast that the US will have primary energy surplus – and not a defi- cit – by February or March 2020, depending on the intensity of the winter season,” Rystad’s vice-president of gas markets, Sindre Knutsson, said in a statement.
Indeed, the consultancy anticipates that the next monthly release from the EIA will reveal that the US has been self-sufficient in primary energy for a full 12-month period, between October 2018 and September 2019.
“This is the first time this will have happened sinceMay1982,”Knutssonsaid.
If these projections are correct, this will trans- late into hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth in gains for the US economy.
“In 2018, the United States had a petroleum deficit of $62bn, which is equivalent to 10% of the country’s overall trade deficit of $621bn, including goods and services,” Knutsson said.
The US shale boom is credited with bringing the US closer to energy independence.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 48 04•December•2019