Page 8 - NorthAmOil Week 48
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NorthAmOil PERFORMANCE NorthAmOil
Canadian regulator forecasts nearly 50% oil output growth by 2040
CANADA
The regulator expects oil output growth to be led by new phases of existing in-situ projects in the oil sands.
THE Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released a long-term outlook this week, which forecasts that the country’s oil production will grow by nearly 50% to about 7mn barrels per day (bpd) by 2040. Gas output is forecast to rise by about 30%, to more than 20bn cubic feet (566mn cubic metres) per day over the same period. The projections come despite the fact that the regulator also has forecast that energy use per person will decline by more than 15% over this time-frame.
The report, ‘Canada’s energy future 2019: energysupplyanddemandprojectionsto2040’, examines how new technologies, infrastructure developments and climate policy will affect the country’s production and consumption trends over the next 20 years.
The regulator noted that the potential for LNG exports was an important driver of Cana- dian natural gas production growth, while an increase in oil output was led by new phases of existing in-situ projects in the oil sands. It added
that the availability of oil takeaway capacity out of Alberta – either via pipeline or rail – would also have an influence on production. The CER anticipates that if the Trans Mountain expansion, Keystone XL and Line 3 replacement projects go ahead as planned, there will be sufficient takea- way capacity to accommodate rising production growth over the next 20 years. This is not guar- anteed, however, though progress is being made, with the Canadian portion of the Line 3 replace- ment pipeline having being brought into service on December 1. (See: Pipeline progress heralds relief for Canada’s oil sands producers, page 4)
The regulator is forecasting that gas and renewables will be used to displace coal-fired electricity generation, which in turn will help to lower emissions from Canada’s electricity sec- tor over the next 20 years. The CER anticipates installed capacity of wind and solar nearly dou- bling over the outlook period, though it expects hydro will still be the dominant source of renew- able electricity energy in 2040.
McDermott, Chiyoda introduce feed gas to Cameron LNG Train 2
LOUISIANA
MCDERMOTT International and Chiyoda International, the joint venture engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contrac- tors on the Cameron LNG export project in Lou- isiana, have introduced feed gas to the second train at the terminal. Train 2 is now at its final commissioning stage.
Progress on bringing the second train online has come after considerable delays in starting up the first train at Cameron, which is majority owned by Sempra Energy. The other partners in the terminal are Total, Mitsui & Co. and Japan LNG Investment – a joint venture between Mit- subishi and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK).
Sempra had initially been aiming to start up all three Cameron trains this year, but construc- tion and weather-related delays have pushed the in-service date of the second and third trains into 2020.
In July Cameron LNG reached an agreement with McDermott and Chiyoda that included incentives for the contractors to reach construc- tion and commissioning milestones on Trains 2
and 3 by specified dates.
Feed gas was introduced to Train 1 on April
15 this year, followed by first liquid on May 14 and the first cargo from the train on May 31. On August 19, Cameron LNG announced that Train 1 had begun commercial operation, following its substantial completion.
The third train at the facility remains under construction.
The start-up of new trains at LNG export terminals on the US Gulf Coast and elsewhere is contributing to a global supply of the super- chilled fuel, however. Last month it was reported that Singapore-based Pavilion Energy had can- celled a cargo it had been due to load at Cameron LNG. However, industry sources told Reuters that Pavilion had still agreed to pay for the cargo. The news service reported that other buyers were also considering cancelling cargoes, but still paying for them, under the terms of take-or- pay contracts they had signed. This has not been confirmed, but would be unsurprising given full inventories of gas in storage and lagging demand growth globally.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 48 04•December•2019
