Page 10 - TURKRptSep21

past decade.
- The violence in Afghanistan will definitely spread to neighbouring countries. These countries will host and provide logistical support to Afghan groups and, as a consequence, the violence will spread to their territory.
- The first to become embroiled will be the northern neighbours known as the “Stans”. Iran will try to keep the clashes away from its border. Pakistan has been involved in the Afghan wars since 1979.
- The real destination and real reason for the action under way in Central and South Asia is China. The violence will spread into China’s Xinjiang region populated by the Muslim and Turkic Uyghurs. The region has a short border with Afghanistan.
- If the ruling Chinese oligarchs avoid the trap of crossing the border into Afghanistan, Beijing will be able to utilise the violence in Xinjiang. It can apply a war economy concept and justify its authoritarian regime in the fight against the evil Xinjiang colonialists. Turkey has been using such an approach against the pro-Kurdish terrorist organisation PKK for more than four decades.
- Some action will also be seen on the Pacific side of China, but there are no striking visible developments there as yet.
- Keeping the China problem in the military sphere will fuel military expenditure, while creating no problem with the slave usage. So, a win-win.
- For mere mortals, “terror” will occur across the globe in the coming period. Bombs will explode everywhere.
How will Turkey be affected?
Turkey has a “proactive” regime focused on its own survival. It is a leading subcontractor in the US war business and it has managed some adventurism of its own. It is currently embroiled in the conflicts of Syria, Libya, Somalia and Nagorno-Karabakh, while also frequently and brazenly crossing the Iraq border to pursue the Kurds.
The newly arrived Biden administration made the regime in Turkey eat humble pie. The story of how the US treats its proxies is always similar. It chooses and empowers the proxy and then the proxy lets it all go to its head at the levers of power. Erdogan became extremely spoilt. The Biden administration showed him his place.
However, even though with Erdogan we are by now talking about something approaching “the corpse of Erdogan”, things with this wily operator are never a piece of cake. He managed by hook or crook to get his claws into a “transactional” partnership with Biden over the Afghanistan business.
What do we know about the deal between Erdogan and Biden?
On June 15, Erdogan and Biden held a private meeting on the sidelines of a Nato summit in Brussels. No official information on the agreement beyond bromides was provided, but that which is visible so far includes:
- Nato has started training Afghans in Turkey. These Afghans are supposed to fight against the Taliban. The media is focused on the Erdogan regime’s attempts to try and find workable relations with the Taliban, but when it comes to Afghanistan, amid all the information “noise” it’s impossible to identify the assorted actual relations among the involved parties.
- Turkey has been evacuating its soldiers as of August 27 from the Kabul
10 TURKEY Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com